'Brown Bounce' over?

A new poll from Populus (hat tip to The Wilted Rose) indicates that Labour's lead on the Conservatives may be rapidly evaporating. It shows that Labour is on 37% (-2), Conservatives 36% (+3) and Lib Dems 16% (+1). It also shows that in England the Conservatives are in the lead everywhere except the North. In Scotland Labour are only 4 points ahead of the SNP. Wales is merged with South West England, so I can only assume that it is due to a substantial Conservative lead in England that Wales/SW gives them a 1 point lead on Labour.

Using the Electoral Calculus this poll suggests that the seats of Aberconwy, Brecon and Radnorshire, Cardiff North, Montgomeryshire and the Vale of Glamorgan would change hands, signalling that Guto Bebb, Suzy Davies, whoever is selected by the Conservatives for Cardiff North (ie Jonathan Evans MEP), Glyn Davies and Alun Cairns AM would all be joining David Davies in Westminster were there an election held tomorrow.

And if in such a scenario Plaid Cymru were also to retake Ceredigion, election night would be a major disaster for the Welsh Liberal Democrats. This may prove to be small comfort for Plaid however, as the Tories would become the second largest party in terms of Welsh MPs.

There is another Populus poll due next week, this time for the Times. Communicate and MORI also have polls due.