Continued from part 1
This, one could imagine, leaves Nick Bourne, leader of the opposition in the Assembly, in a very uncomfortable position. After all, he and some of his chief squires, such as David Melding and Jonathan Morgan, have given their personal support for primary powers. This in the face of the clear opposition of the three Conservative MPs who represent Welsh constituencies. I wonder, then, if Bourne's (and others) strategy of making the Conservative Party in Wales more Welsh about to reach the end of its journey? I wonder, indeed, if Bourne himself is at the point of losing the favour and support of Cameron and his advisors - favouritism and support that he had enjoyed until now? Certainly, one could create such an argument. Remember that interesting little story on Betsan Powys's blog back in December that David Cameron had mentioned neither the Assembly nor Nick Bourne, who was sitting at his side, whilst addressing our capital's Business Club. Kremlinologists during the old Soviet Union period could construct big enough theories on such foundations! Is Bourne about to be sent away to care for that fabled factory in the Siberian wilderness - or even the Pwllheli Conservative Club for that part?
Hardly. The truth is that there is no strategy other than Bourne's on offer for the Welsh Conservatives. Even the Welsh MPs are forced to recognise that, albeit unwillingly. Look at the controversial essay by Stephen Crabbe, the MP for Preseli, on the ConservativeHome website. After lambasting the results of devolution and arguing that the experience of the last decade has confirmed his original doubts concerning the whole business, he nevertheless is forced to recognise the following: ‘Abolition of the devolved institutions is not currently saleable.’ So rather than get rid of devolution, the arch anti-devolutionist argues that its time to extend devolution to England, and that in the form of an English Parliament. Nick Bourne hardly has anything to worry about there!
The thing that worries him I suppose is this: at some point soon the whole Wales-friendly rhetoric of the Welsh Tories is going to appear very spent unless there is some kind of policy of substance to back it up. And that substance cannot evade the question of powers for the Assembly. Remembering the words of the former Welsh Secretary, this is the eliphant on the Welsh Conservatives' doorstep, and Bourne knows that all too well.
He also realises that establishing the Constitutional Convention under the leadership of Sir Emyr Jones Parry means that the Conservatives will have to say something concerning new powers during the next few months. But what can they say? Especially if the strategic decisions of Cameron and his advisors, together with deep splits within the Welsh party, means that the party doesn't want to show any leadership on the matter?
The answer, I believe, is fairly obvious. The Conservatives can promise that any Conservative government in Westminster would hold a referendum on implementing Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act, leaving the paty members free to campaign for or against as they see fit. As well as finding a way to unite - or manage - a split in their own ranks (as Harold Wilson did on the matter of the Common Market back in 1975), promising a referendum offers two other substantial advantages for the Conservatives in the present context.
Firstly, it would cause great embarrassment for the Labour Party, and especially for its MPs. The Government of Wales Act 2006 gave the Secretary of State a veto on the timing of a referendum. Use of the veto has already been threatened. Peter Hain said publicly that there would be no referendum before 2011. Indeed, there are obvious enough figures within the Welsh Labour Party who have been saying that there will be no referendum until after 2011, despite the contents of the One Wales coalition agreement. If the Conservatives were to promise a referendum then the veto would lose much of its power. As well as that, the Tories can be fairly confident that the certainty of a referendum being held at some point would be enough to encourage some of those Labour MPs who oppose primary powers come what may to begin to form a faction and prepare a No Campaign. That, of course, would be honey on the fingers of the Conservatives.
But as well as that, promising a referendum would undermine one of the main supports of the present relationship between Plaid Cymru and the Labour Party in Cardiff Bay. There were a number of factors which were responsible for Plaid's decision not to attempt leading its own governmental coalition but, instead, to cooperate with Labour. One of these was the supposition that only Labour with its parliamentary majority could ensure a referendum on lawmaking powers. Indeed, without this, I doubt the One Wales document would have been signed at all. A commitment by the Conservatives to hold a referendum would turn everything on its head. Although it wouldn't be enough to sink the present government, it would create a new environment and new possibilities for the Conservatives.
But will the Conservatives support a referendum? It's worth noting the following words (again on Betsan's blog) by Nick Bourne. When the leader of the Opposition was asked concerning what would his party have included in its Welsh Manifesto had Brown called a referendum in October, this was Bourne's response: “Certainly there was sympathy for a referendum. This [primary powers] is an issue that can only be addressed by a referendum... We'd have had to say something on that issue and that was a subject of discussion. I was very sympathetic to it going in, as were others.”
A Conservative government in Westminster holding a referendum on primary powers for Wales? It seems increasingly possible to me...
