Gwynedd Elections Part 1

The following is a translation of Blog Menai's predictions for the local elections in Gwynedd

Let me begin with Dyffryn Peris and some of its ajoining wards. Since the 70s and early 80s there was a fierce battle between Labour and Plaid in many of these wards, and it was rare for councillors to be returned without opposition. The world changed and by now this is the least interesting part of the county during elections, a good number of wards without an election, and the rest are rather easy to predict:

Y Felinheli: Sian Gwenllian (Plaid) will be elected unopposed. This will cause some dissappointment to Labour - Glyn Evans had previously represented the ward - but they haven't found anyone to stand in his place. Martin Eaglestone lives in the town -prospective Labour candidate in the Assembly and general elections for some time. He is also the owner of the most inverted, narrow sighted and parochial political blog in Wales. Glyn was the closest Labourite to Plaid after Eddie Dogan left Labour and joined Plaid. He was as likely to sit amongst Pleidwyr as amongst those of his own party in council meetings, and it is said that Labour could not depend on his vote in an Assembly election.

Bethel: Huw Price Hughes (Plaid) will be returned unopposed. A strong candidate that is unlikely to lose come what may.

Penisarwaun: Pat Larsen (Plaid) returned unopposed. Pat has represented Penisarwaun on different councils since the mid 1960s. The majority of the ward's population cannot remember being represented by anyone else.

Cwm y Glo: Brian Jones (Labour): returned unopposed. Brian is the Labour group's leader, and has represented the ward for decades. He hasn't faced an election since the Cwm and Llanrug wards were seperated, and wasn't often opposed before that either.

Llanberis: Trevor Edwards (Independent): returned unopposed. A local and popular man who never canvasses but whose seat is completely safe. He's attracted attention to himself recently by frequenting some of Llais Gwynedd's meetings - though he abstained on the matter of restructuring primary schools. He did not cross that bridge.

Waunfawr: Gwilym Williams (Independent) returned unopposed. It is some dissappointment for Plaid that nobody was found to stand there. Though Gwilym has previously been returned there, there is a long tradition of Plaid Cymru representation in this village - with Eiryg Wyn and Dafydd Iwan among others who have represented the ward at different times.

Llanrug: A contest at last. Charles Jones (Plaid) represents the ward at the moment against Dafydd Guto Ifan (Independent). There was some speculation that Dafydd would stand in the name of Llais Gwynedd, but it wasn't to be. Charles has represented Llanrug since quite a while by now, and he was also a very young councillor back in the 70s.

Dafydd Guto doesn't live in the ward - he lives in neighbouring Penisarwaun. Despite that, and judging by his elctoral correspondence he's under the impression that he does live in Llanrug. Dafydd Guto didn't do himself any favours with his hysterical behaviour in the protest against school restructuring last December. He stood some years ago in Bethel -coming a good second- against the predictions of many (including my own).

Although Charles has some problems in the wake of the County Council's different decisions regarding traffic in the village, and a series of unfriendly letters complaining about him in the press, the school restructuring scheme will not effect Llanrug. Charles will win this seat rather easily - one of the most effective councillors when it comes to accomplishing local duties.

Deiniolen: Another election. Len Jones (Plaid) holds the seat, and he has two opponents -David Alan Pritchard (Labour) and Ian Franks (Llais Gwynedd).

The village of Deiniolen is a very Welsh village -but there are little villages around it that have been anglicised: Fachwen, Dinorwig and to a lesser degree Clwt y Bont. Deiniolen is much larfer than the other villages and a high perecentage of homes there are council houses, and the residents much more likely to vote than the English settlers in the outlying villages. It is also a very tribal area.

There are two problems for Plaid - the school (though it has 200 children) will be federalised, and the party's branch there is lacking in focus. At one time it was amongst the largest and most vibrant branches in the country. Despite this, I'm rather confident that Len will win -he voted against the restructuring of primary schools, and Plaid's support in the village has been constantly very solid- despite the branch's woes. I don't think Labour has won there since the 1960s. In addition I can't work out who is Alan Pritchard, despite trying to find out. I don't think he lives in Deiniolen.

I believe that Ian Franks is an Englishman who works in a local paper shop. He doesn't speak much welsh and he lives in Clwt y Bont. He has no hope in a community like this one. It is said that his intention was to stand in one of the Bangor wards, but failed to find ten people to sign his paper there.

As I said, this is the least interesting area. There are much more elections in the other areas.

More later

Yet more strangeness from Llais Gwynedd

Accusations that Llais Gwynedd is no more than a ragbag collection of Plaid dissenters rather than a party campaigning for the preservation of small schools seem to be gaining weight on a daily basis, thanks mostly to the new party's own candidates.

Wendy Crisp is the Llais Gwynedd candidate in Dyffryn Nantlle (Penygroes ward). Wendy lives in Nebo and a few years ago she moved her children from the village's local primary school (which was practically in her back garden) to Ysgol Bryn Aerau, a distance of four or five miles. It seems strange that she has decided to stand in the name of a party which claims to be campaigning against the closure of small local schools if she's not so keen on using them herself. Still, it's a strange world.

Agro for aggregators

Many of you may have noticed that the Welsh political aggregators Comment from the Senedd and Welsh Political News seem to have dissappeared. Matt Wardman of The Wardman Wire who runs both aggregators has explained to me that this is due to a hacker attack, and that both aggregators -which had attracted quite an audience with their quickly updated and comprehensive tracking of the Welsh political blogosphere- will be up and running again later in the week.

Labour devolutionists: winning the battle, losing the war?

Translation of an article by Professor Richard Wyn Jones in this month's edition of Barn

Despite the fact that this is a fateful period, their silence is deafening: why in the world, I wonder, are the Welsh Labour Party's devolutionists so quiet?

Last July, there was every sign that things would be very different. When the results of the vote in the Welsh labour Party's Special Conference were announced, the devolutionists were more than satisfied. By winning every element of the vote in favour of forming a coalition with plaid Cymru -including a key victory of 61% to 39% in the electoral department- the devolutionists were completely confident that they had won an historic battle. In their view, it was not only the fate of a coalition that was in the balance but, rather, the whole attitude of their party towards devolution. And by winning the vote, and defeating people like Lord Kinnock and even Peter Hain in the process, the devolutionists' feeling was that they had proved once and for all that the future was theirs. The age of the old ambiguity was over. And they were more than ready to cackle about that as well...at least in private.

Looking back, the fact that the devolutionists were only willing to celebrate their victory in private seems to be more and more significant. Because it's completely obvious that the anti-devolutionists - and those that wanted to curb the Labour group in the Assembly - have interpreted the Special Conference vote in a very different way: for them, it was no more than a skirmish in a broader war, rather than a key battle whose result would change everything. Because of that, since the conference thay have been attempting to raise doubts and undermine the decision of their party. So much for party democracy! And it is they, the opponents and the doubters, who have set the public agenda since then. The devolutionists themselves have more or less been completely mute, giving way to their opponents.

Gradually, rumours and private as well as public briefings around Westminster and Whitehall into public announcements which pour cold water on the central element of the One Wales Agreement, namely the commitment to a referendum on primary powers by 2011. We've now had two Secretaries of State who have made it clear publicly that they do not foresee any such referendum happening until after 2011. Put simply, two of Labour's chief figures in Wales -the two who were the chief representatives of Wales in the westminster Government since the signing of the One Wales agreement- have shown that the commitment in that document for a referendum is not taken seriously neither by them nor by Gordon Brown's government. By doing this, they are not only raising two fingers at Plaid Cymru -and it is, more's the pity, as immature as that- they are also giving a public warning to those members of the Welsh Labour Party who support the Coalition: maybe you succeeded to defeat us on the conference floor, but remember that the real power is ion our hands!

Let me put Plaid Cymru's response to one side this time, noting only that that party too has been strangely quiet in the face of all this until Ieuan Wyn Jones made a number of comments recently which are obviously intended to be warnings for the Labour party as to the importance of a commitment to a referendum. How rather do we explain the response -or lack of one- of the Labour Party's devolutionists to the challenge of those who they defeated in the July conference?

Without a doubt, there are several factors at work. In one thing it should never be forgotten that many of the Labour Party's devolutionists are just as hostile towards Plaid Cymru as are the anti-devolutionists. So the extent to which efforts to undermine a commitment to a referendum have made the Plaid Cymru leadership's life uncomfortable -as it no doubt has- has given some silent satisfaction to the more partisan brothers and sisters amongst the devolutionists.

Party loyalty is another factor. Time and again over the last few years, we have seen Labour devolutionists -Rhodri Morgan the chief among them- biting their tongues to avoid creating a public split in the party ranks. (An interesting question is whay haven't the anti-devolutionists felt the same need to keep silent?) Hand in hand with an unwillingness to debating publicly there has been a tendency among the devolutionists to concentrate on working behind the scenes rather than raising their banner in public. This was seen most clearly, perhaps, before the Special Conference itself. Although little was said in public by the supporters of One wales, they were very active in the background ensuring a favourable result. 'We don't lose conference votes' said one fiercely -in a private conversation, of course! Indeed, ever since devolution reappeared on the Labour Party's agenda in the late 1980s, the committee room's campaign and that of the closed meetings has been the campaign in favour of devolution within the ranks to a large degree indeed. That custom has by now developed into second nature.

Another element which has proved an obstacle to responding in public is the fact that the Welsh Labour Party is on the threshold of an election to choose a successor to Rhodri Morgan. Carwyn Jones, particularly, isn't about to upset the opponents and doubters at the moment, partly because his strategy -it seems- is to present himself as 'Mr wales' without being forced to connect himself overly with any views on specific policy. In the same way, the hope of Andrew Davies and Leighton Andrews -the two other likely candidates- is to build a coalition which will bridge all the party's factions. None of these three have any interest in a public squabble regarding the future of devolution, even if all of them -I believe- favour primary powers.

But there is also another factor at work. Simply, whatever the differences between them, it seems that the general belief in the Labour ranks is that they can do as they wish on the matter of a referendum without worrying about losing power in Cardiff. The general suposicion is that Plaid Cymru will remain part of the government come what may. And even if they leave the government, another general belief within the Labour ranks is that Plaid Cymru would allow Labour to govern as a minority government. These beliefs have become deeply rooted among Labour supporters, be they devolutionists or anti-devolutionists. If asked why that is, apart from unfair and unworthy remarks to the effect that sacrificing the perks of government would be too much of a sacrifice for the Plaid ministers, the only rational explanation that I've heard is this: even if Labour drops its commitment to a referendum, and Plaid is forced into leaving the coalition by ley members who are not 'mature' enough to understand how real politics works, the four AMs who opposed the Rainbow last summer remain just as opposed to it now. So rather than sinking a government in order to form a Rainbow government in its place, Plaid would withdraw to the sidelines to lick its wounds, allowing Labour to govern by itself (as some wanted from the beginning, of course).

Although we're only guessing, of course, I wonder if the Labour analysis of Plaid Cymru's likely behaviour is incorrect. The remarks of ministers and MPs at Westminster are one thing -who knows if they will still be in power beyond the summer of 2010? But if it becomes obvious that the Labour Party in the Assembly is weakening in its commitment to a referendum then Plaid Cymru will leave the coalition. I don't know if a Rainbow will appear in its place -it's more likely that the proximity of another Assembly election would be the main obstacle rather than the oppinion of any specific AM. If One Wales ends in 2009 then I believe that a Rainbow would be a very real possibility, but if it continues until 2010, then it is unlikely. But even if there is a minority government in control, you can be completely certain that it would have a very difficult time in the Senedd from then until May 2011. And possibly without a Labour government in London to lean on. An awfully difficult situation for labour.

On top of that, by breaking the conditions of the One Wales Agreement, Labour would ensure that the price of any future coalition between itself and any other party after May 2011 would be that much higher. Long term commitments wouldn't be enough anymore; any prospective partner, be that Plaid Cymru or the Liberals, would be determined to ensure a pound or two of flesh straight away. And if Labour refuse, well any arguments against an anti-Labour coalition would be that much more weaker as a result. By ensuring an easy life in the short term by abandoning an inconvenient and controversial commitment, Labour could end up paying dearly indeed in the long term. Nevertheless, by being so quiet, the devolutionists are making a situation of this kind more and more likely.

Another consequence of the devolutionists' silence is that they allow a substantial minority of Welsh Labour Party members to continue to live a lie on the matter of devolution. Although it is a surprise to have to say such a thing, it is a fact that there is a faction of Welsh Labourites -the majority of the MPs among them- who continue to refuse to accept the reality that devolution has revolutionised Welsh politics and that the tide can never be turned back. Since Rhodri Morgan's one man cavalry saved the Labour Party from the stupidity and arrogance of Tony Blair's decision to force Alun Michael on the electorate and on the Welsh labour Party in February 2000, the party succeeded remarkably, despite the obstinate attitudes of these opponents and doubters. But Morgan is leaving soon and none of his likely successors will be able to fill his shoes. On top of that, yje Labour Party on a British level is in deep water without any sight of a life boat on the horizon. Without any far reaching organisational and intellectual changes -and, more than anything, without any substantial chamge in its mode of thinking- the Welsh party could easily find itself in great difficulty as well. The pitiful condition of the Scottish Labour Party should act as a warning of what might be. But if it is to be silence, I can see no way of forcing the necessary changes.

Perhaps it's fairly obvious that the devolutionists' strategy of 'working-quietly-in-the-background' is rapidly reaching its limit? Indeed, if the devolutionists remain as quiet as they are in the face of their opponents' challenge, they can see themselves as having won a battle last July only to lose the war -which is no less than a war for the life and future of the Welsh labour party.

WAG to give 'Sale & Rent' aid

The BBC reports that people in Wales struggling to pay their mortgages will be given official help to stay in their homes by the Welsh Assembly Government.

According to Deputy Housing Minister, Jocelyn Davies:

"Registered social landlords in Wales will be able to buy existing stock as well as looking to building new stock," she said.

"Of course, that means they could buy a house with a sitting tenant.

"So it could be that you're an owner-occupier today in considerable difficulties but a registered social landlord may very well be able to buy that house so you then become a tenant.

"It's a way out for some people."