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I've removed the Welsh language advertisement banner from my blog as it was interfering with this blog's ability to load due to problems with those adverts' webhost. This is the second time it's happened this year and frankly I can do without such glitches, so it won't be returning.

Head on the block

Translation of a post by Vaughan Roderick:

The day before the Assembly election I put my head on the block and made a few predictions. The results were mixed to say the least! Nevertheless I'll venture once more with the full expectation of being completely wrong in a few places. Here they are then, my predictions regarding what will happen tomorrow.

In the case of the number of seats I predict that the Conservatives will be the big winners tomorrow. This is pretty much a sure thing because of the substantial increase in the party's number of candidates especially in areas such as Pembrokeshire and Powys. There is no doubt in my mind either that the Conservatives will win a majority in the Vale of Glamorgan.

In 2004 the Tories won less seats (107) than Labour (478), Plaid Cymru (174) and the Liberal Democrats (146), never mind the independents (322). I expect the Conservatives to beat the Liberal Democrats this time and to come close to Plaid Cymru's total.

There's a prize, which is more than a consolation prize, for the Liberal Democrats, namely the biggest council in Wales: Cardiff. In my opinion the party will be within a hair's breadth of gaining a majority over everyone in the capital with Labour, possibly, coming third to the Conservatives.

Things could be more difficult for the Liberal Democrats in Swansea, Bridgend and Wrexham. It's likely that the fate of these councils will depend on talks after the election. I wouldn't be surprised, for example, to see an agreement between Labour and Plaid Cymru to dethrone the Liberal Democrats in Swansea if the math permits that.

At the moment Labour has over half the seats in seven areas. I expect the party to maintain its majorities in Rhondda Cynon Taf, Neath-Port Talbot and Torfaen, and lose them in Caerphilly, Flintshire and Blaenau Gwent. The situation in Newport could be unclear because of the delaying of elctions in two wards where candidates have died.

In the West I suspect Plaid Cymru could come close to gaining a majority in Ceredigion and gain ground in Carmarthenshire. This could recompense the party for any losses in Gwynedd.

I'll finish by talking about that council. I have to admit that I find it difficult to understand the Welsh language media's obsession with Gwynedd. The only question in Gwynedd is will Plaid Cymru have an overall majority? There's no doubt it will be the largest party and as the council is run by a cross-party board it is unlikely that the result will make much of a difference to the council's management or policies in the long term.

That's not to dismiss the possible importance of Llais Gwynedd. Success for that group (and that means winning at least ten to twelve seats) would certainly effect the scheme to reorganize schools in the county and would be a significant sign of discontent in the ranks of traditional Plaid Cymru supporters.

Perhaps I'm too much of a cynic but I recall several individuals and groups who promised much in Welsh speaking Wales but who accomplished little on election day. Will Llais Gwynedd be more significant than the efforts of Peter Rogers or Llais y Bobol on Ynys Môn or the campaign for an elected mayor in Ceredigion? Morning dew or a real rebellion? We shall see.

Cymru Yfory

From the Western Mail:

A leading political commentator told a conference yesterday that the debate about extra powers for the National Assembly should be refashioned into a debate about giving sovereignty to the people of Wales.

Now where have I heard that idea before?

John Osmond, director of the IWA, told a conference organised by the campaign group Cymru Yfory ('Tommorrow's Wales'):

“At present we have to go cap in hand to the Westminster Parliament to ask them to approve what is called a Legislative Competence Order – to hand down, or devolve if you like, permission or competence for the Assembly to pass measures in prescribed fields.

“So far, since the 2006 Act came into force last May, we have succeeded in prising just one Legislative Competence Order out of Westminster, celebrated the other day, relating to additional learning needs.

“What this process underlines is that the sovereignty, or where the real power lies in all of this, still resides in Westminster. It is my contention that this question of sovereignty goes to the heart of the matter.

“Notionally, all power devolved by Westminster – whether to Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland – is power retained. That is to say, and in theory at least, Westminster retains complete sovereignty. Theoretically it could abolish the National Assembly or even the Scottish Parliament. But we know that, in practice, it cannot. So, paradoxically and illogically – but typically under the unwritten British Constitution – we have degrees and portioning out of sovereignty within the devolution processes under way inside the United Kingdom.

“In the case of Wales, everything devolved is itemised and labelled. The powers are derived from specific ministerial functions named in pieces of primary and secondary legislation scattered across the Westminster Statute Book.

“In this process there was no sense sovereignty over the devolved functions was being passed to Wales. Indeed, and in contrast with the Scotland Act, the architecture and tone of the Wales Act was to see the Assembly as, in essence, a tier of local government. In turn this has produced all the complexities and difficulties over the years in both understanding the operation of the Assembly and defining in detail what it can and cannot do.

“Once the Assembly has untrammelled authority over its devolved functions, that is to say once it does not have to go cap in hand to Westminster for Competence Orders to allow it to legislate, it will be able to exercise sovereignty in the areas over which it has powers.”

Glyn Davies believes that voters would reject a 'Scottish' model. I disagree. There is a pro-devolutionist mood in Wales as last September's poll clearly indicated, and among those voters who are pro-devolutionists a'Scottish model' is clearly favoured over yet another halfway house:

Support for independence has hovered at the same level for a decade, 14% then and 12% now, while an Assembly had the support of 27% polled in 1997 and 28% today.
But the big changes are in support for a legislative Parliament, similar to the one in Scotland – up from 20% in 1997 to 43% now – and the decline in the anti-devolution vote: 40% then and just 17% now. A further analysis of the date shows an age-divide, with the under-35s far more likely to support a deepening of devolution.

More than 50% of 18-34-year- olds support a Scottish-style parliament, compared with 35% of those aged 65 and over.

By contrast, only 14% of those aged between 18-34 are opposed to any form of devolution compared with 24% of over-65s.

As ever with this subject, the question of timing a referendum is in dispute. Glyn writes:

It became increasingly clear to me that the idea that a referendum will be held before May 2011 is as dead as a dodo. Alun Davies, who must have the top command's licence to say it, said "I would rather win a late referendum than lose an early one". Quite! Even Helen Mary was tentative. Something like 'It's still a possibility' - which technically it is. I wonder when Ieuan Wyn Jones will admit the demise of the main plank he walked when he shuffled his troops into the support positions which kept Rhodri Morgan in his job last May.

As I've said before, to win a 'Yes' vote you have to actually start campaigning for a 'Yes' vote. Unfortunately the biggest obstacle to achieving a positive result is the growing unpopularity of the Labour Party itself, the extent of which will be more accurately measured here in Wales when we go to the polls tomorrow. Despite Brown's post-election plans this is unlikely to improve between now and a general election: the PM has already been tested and found wanting. Having said that, a referendum timed to take place one or two years after the Conservatives have taken power in Westminster in 2009 or 2010 would quite possibly benefit from an anti-Tory sentiment in Wales, which would maintain 2011 or at the latest 2012 as a realistic date for a 'Yes' vote to succeed.

Brown prepares post-election plans

Gordon Brown is to canvass grassroots Labour opinion on the future policy direction of the party in the immediate aftermath of what is expected to be dire local election results tomorrow:

The unprecedented step will give 600 constituency parties and unions an opportunity to amend the government's programme in the run-up to the next general election, as well as vent their frustration at the current direction of party policy.

Six draft policy programmes will be despatched to constituency parties within 24 hours of the local elections, with constituencies given rights for the first time to submit an unlimited number of amendments. Leading members of the national executive said bad local election results were likely to lead to constituency calls for a less cautious policy line, including a more progressive tax system in the wake of the mistaken abolition of the 10p tax band. There will also be demands for new employment rights for agency workers and the abandonment of plans to detain terrorist suspects for 42 days without charge.

It's too little too late to save Brown's bacon on May 1, but even this apparent newly found desire for democracy within the Labour Party isn't all that it seems:

Activists are demanding that the details of the consultation are published in full, to properly gauge how people are feeling.

But party officials have decided the criticisms will be sent only to the relevant elected regional members on the national policy forum, the party's deliberative policy-making body, and will not be centrally published, or put on the party's intranet so the process can be fully transparent.

Constituencies have until June 20 to submit motions, providing a sharp six-week focus for those seeking fresh policies. The documents, including the amendments, will then be voted on at a national policy forum in July before being endorsed by the party conference in September as the party's programme.

Party officials have refused to publish constituency amendments on grounds of cost. But Peter Kenyon, from Save the Labour Party, complained that the cost will be minimal, adding: "There are some people in the hierarchy of the Labour party who cannot shed old habits and still do not understand how society is becoming more open."

One NEC member pointed out that all resolutions deploring the scrapping of the 10p tax band were ruled out of order at last autumn's party conference on the basis that they were not contemporary resolutions. "Well, they are contemporary now," said the angry NEC member.

Labour MPs are continuing to report a lethal backlash against the abolition of the 10p tax band, saying it is hitting Labour on the doorstep way beyond the numbers likely to be personally affected by the tax change. One senior MP said: "The backlash against the 10p may provide Brown with an alibi if we do badly, but the problem is that it was his decision, and it seems symptomatic of a government that has lost its way."

A leading NEC member, Ann Black, yesterday urged the party membership to seize the chance to take control of the party's policy. But she admitted she could not predict whether the new process will lead to a flood of amendments, or instead be greeted by indifference from a membership that believes it has lost its say over Labour's direction.