Wendy's u-turn on independence referendum

From the Herald:

Labour leader Wendy Alexander yesterday backed a referendum on Scottish independence, in a major U-turn intended to call Alex Salmond's "bluff".

Her move represents a sharp change in Labour's response to the SNP poll surge, and its timing was a surprise to colleagues.

Ms Alexander's abrupt shift from opposing to supporting a referendum follows what she called "tactical discussions" within the party about putting the SNP administration under pressure on its referendum proposal.

This is supposed to but Salmond "under pressure"? What are the odds that he's grinning from ear to ear?

Labour tripping up

Stephen Farrington posts some interesting thoughts on Labour's loss of "working class votes":

The working class have never won Labour elections and never will. Historically, between one-third and one-half of the working class have voted Conservative. Furthermore, that working class has been declining for decades. More people are entering ABC1 professions and fewer are identifying themselves with the Labour Party. The weak 'working class' core vote Labour once had has been eroding as the country has become more affluent. At best, Labour's core vote rests around 30 per cent of the electorate and is not entirely working class. Even if a core vote strategy would win that entire 30 per cent back to Labour, there would still be a gulf between Labour and Conservative votes.

Class based politics have always been too generalised, seeking to conflate individuals in similar situations into a homogeneous entity with consistent voting patterns. Class based voting has rarely been accurate, and the Labour vote has never been wholely of a single class (similarly, the Labour movement has never been exclusively a labour movement). Now, when class identity is increasingly becoming an irrelevance, such an outdated strategy will be unsuccessful and will only raise spectres of class warfare. Appealing to a 'working class' will alienate the majority of votes who identify themselves as middle class.

He continues:

Tony Blair appealed to the swing voters that decide elections and was successful. To abandon such middle class voters in favour of a mythical working class vote would only serve to further erode Labour support in the country. Blair knew, as all modernisers do, that victory lies with progressive swing-voters and wide appeals to the nation. It does not lie in class politics or core engagement.

Labour are tired and they are out-of-touch, but they are out-of-touch with the whole electorate rather than just the working class. The Party needs to reconnect with the electorate through competence and a clear direction not a core vote strategy bound for failure.

SNP one year on

Alex Salmond talks to the BBC about his year in power, and admits he had expected to form a coalition with the Lib Dems.

Anthony Barnett reminds us that despite Labour's drubbing in England and Wales, there is a very different picture in Scotland:

The Labour vote seems to be holding in Scotland at around 30 percent, perhaps out of loyalty to Brown (?) but Tory and Lib Dem opposition seems to be crashing as people switch to the SNP. As Scott points out in a comment on my ‘First Thoughts after Labour’s Debacle’ there was a by-election in Scotland which had a 15 per cent swing away from the Tories - to the SNP.

GB's Diary

Those of you who like a bit of a giggle should visit Gordon Brown's Diary. Here's an extract:

There's nothing quite like a summer barbecue is there? I'm having one this bank holiday afternoon with Sarah, John and James. Plenty of hot sizzling sausages, tasty burgers, and all the trimmings - wonderful! But my favourite thing about barbecues is the charcoal. I love the stuff! It's like coal's sexy cousin. It's also a far more acceptable Christmas present than coal is.

Hat tip to Steve

Nonentities come to Brown's defence

If Brown's position as PM is so secure, why does he need his lackies to play down talk of a leadership challenge?

Chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party Tony Lloyd insisted there was no real threat to Mr Brown's position.

Speaking on BBC Radio Four's Today programme on Monday Mr Lloyd said the prime minister's position was not in question.

"There isn't, outside of those who have their own personal malice towards Gordon or indeed the odd ones with personality defects, a challenge against Gordon Brown.

"What there is, is a demand of Gordon Brown to begin to do what he set out yesterday. To begin to do what Labour MPs have been saying to him, to make sure that the policies are consistent with Labour's overall position as a party of fairness and social justice," he said.

Well, er, he would say that, now wouldn't he?

Ben Bradshaw said despite current problems he remained the right person to lead the party into the next election.

"When we get through this, people will look back and say he was the right man in the right place, and they'll have to make a choice between that and the alternative, which I don't think is a very attractive one"

Is he talking about Jacqui Smith or Harriet Harman?

Mr Hutton said suggestions from some Labour backbenchers that Mr Brown had just six months to save his job were ludicrous.

"I think all that talk about a leadership challenge is nonsense, a complete irrelevance," he said.

"We have made our choice about the right leader for our party and, I believe, for the country. We've got to get behind him and support him in the things that he is doing."

Well with the likes of John Hutton defending him, Brown's tenure as PM could go on indefinately...

EU transparency

New EU rules on access to documents from EU institutions have been brought up to date. The European Commission says it is part of its commitment to transparency.

EC Vice-President, Margot Wallström, said:

"Our objective is increased transparency, increased access and increased outreach and understanding. This is fundamental in any democratic system: the citizens' right to know. Access to documents is an essential tool for democracy and now we want to improve it."

This includes better access to names of people acting in a professional capacity and to documents from EU Member States. A spokesman said:

"The other main aim is to look how we can increase the use of the system by citizens. Objective to make the system for the laymen not essentially for the lobbyists. We have something like 40% of all requests coming from lobbyists and law firms, and the objective is to try to increase the number of requests coming from average citizens."

The improvements suggested by the Commission are based on a broad public consultation begun last spring, on recommendations made by the European Parliament and on the case law of the European Courts.

This seems like a good and sensible proposal to me, although I'm not sure how far it will go in changing citizens' perception of the EU as far as transparency is concerned...

Could Ron Davies join Plaid Cymru?

One anonymous comment asks why Ron Davies doesn't join Plaid Cymru? After all, it seems he will be working with them and, well, his wife is now a Plaid councillor on Caerphilly Council.

I think it's a reasonable question and the kind political anoraks would enjoy mulling over.

To be a member he would have to sign up to the Party's aims:

* To promote the constitutional advancement of Wales with a view to attaining Full National Status for Wales within the European Union.

* To ensure economic prosperity, social justice and the health of the natural environment, based on decentralist socialism.

* To build a national community based on equal citizenship, respect for different traditions and cultures and the equal worth of all individuals, whatever their race, nationality, gender, colour, creed, sexuality, age, ability or social background.

* To create a bilingual society by promoting the revival of the Welsh language.

* To promote Wales's contribution to the global community and to attain membership of the United Nations.

Hmmm

US Economy not unbad

Given the present problems concerning Gordon Brown and the economy, perhaps we should compare and contrast the situation with that of the US and count our blessings...?

Obama changes gear

The Guardian has been keeping track of the Obama campaign. It appears Obama's campaign is now very different:

Obama's campaign has changed fundamentally. Following the incendiary sermons of his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, Obama has been caught up in a divisive race-tinged debate. He has been attacked as elitist and out of touch and a friend to dangerous radicals. His support among white Democrats - once seen as the key to his 'post-racial' appeal - has collapsed. Moreover, the long fight with Clinton has turned into vicious political trench warfare that seems never to end. The Democratic Party, far from uniting, is falling into a nasty civil war.

Now, for Obama, there is one last chance to try to knock Clinton out. This Tuesday sees primaries in North Carolina and Indiana. Obama is expected to take North Carolina and if he can pick off Indiana - and its precious white working-class vote - then it could finally land Clinton with a mortal blow. The superdelegates - the party bosses who will now decide this contest - may finally break for Obama in the wake of such a win. 'If Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina, it has got to be seen as all over,' said pollster John Zogby, head of the polling firm Zogby International.

Way back in January I predicted that John McCain would succeed George W. Bush. I hope I'm proved wrong, but if Hillary makes a comeback on Tuesday in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, the doubts over Obama will grow and grow. The super-delegates will face a terrible dilemma. And the August party convention in Denver will beckon as the arena for a political fight the like of which has not been seen in decades. At the moment both Obama and Clinton have a lead on McCain by 11 and 12 points respectively. But a Democrat civil war in Denver could well hand McCain the presidency on a plate.

Brown still down

Brown's attempts yesterday both on the BBC and on Sky news to relaunch himself don't seem to have succeeded. And giving that he pays incredibly close attention to how the papers cover him — much closer attention than the average reader, he won't be any happier with today's morning papers than yesterday's. The Times reports the following:

Gordon Brown will have a year to show that he can turn around Labour’s fortunes after its drubbing in last week’s elections, senior ministers said yesterday.

As backbench sniping at his leadership intensified, ministers canvassed by The Times said that Mr Brown, who has been Prime Minister for less than 12 months, must be allowed time to fight back.

But several agreed that if Labour’s ratings did not improve in the coming year, his position might at that point become untenable. One said: “If we have not moved on by this time next year, we will be looking at certain defeat in the general election. At that point, people who see no point in putting themselves forward might feel they have nothing to lose, or Gordon himself might think it’s time to go.”

Well, at least that's six months more than he was being given by others.