Wednesday, 7 May 2008

Ta Ta Tigger

Translation of a post by Vaughan Roderick

Mike German announced today that he will be resigning as the Liberal Democrat leader in October. There'll be more than enough time to weigh up his career before then but nobody can deny his tenacity or his ability to withstand the unavoidable storms of the political world. He, after all, is the only party leader from the first Assembly who's still in charge.

Mike has a nickname among the other parties, namely "Tigger", based on one of the characters of A.A Milne.

Tigger's great attribute of course was that he was forever optimistic and believed the best every time. At times he was boastful and self-important, boasting that he would achieve some impossible feat or another. Without exception his efforts failed or at best only half succeeded. It didn't matter. Within minutes Tigger would be back on his feet and just as confident as ever.

The wonderful thing about tiggers
Is tiggers are wonderful things!
Their tops are made out of rubber
Their bottoms are made out of springs!
They're bouncy, trouncy, flouncy, pouncy
Fun, fun, fun, fun, fun!
But the most wonderful thing about tiggers is
I'm the only one


Only someone with an attitude like that could have put up with all the awkward twists and turns of the Liberal Democrats and the Welsh Liberals for over thirty years!

Dmitry Medvedev: Russia's new president



The Russian Federation has a new president. The transfer of power from Vladimir Putin to Dmitry Medvedev took place in the Kremlin Palace with 2,500 guests in attendance. Svetlana Medvedeva watched her husband take the oath of the highest office in the country, replacing his mentor and friend. Medvedev, 42, promised to do his best for the country before he was pronounced president.

In his first presidential address he said "I intend to work to improve civil liberties and the economy to create bigger and better opportunities for our people".

Medvedev has followed in the footsteps of Vladimir Putin ever since he left law school in St Petersburg, moving from the Mayor's office there to the Russian White House and now to the Kremlin:

Having campaigned as Mr Putin's protege and tied himself to his mentor's policies as soon as his victory became known, analysts say it is no surprise that Mr Putin will continue to play a central role.

An economic liberal, Mr Medvedev has served Mr Putin as first deputy prime minister, chairman of Gazprom - Russia's enormous state-run gas monopoly, campaign chief and chief of staff.

But his working relationship with his predecessor goes back much further.

A lawyer by training, in the 1990s Mr Medvedev was an assistant professor at St Petersburg State University, during which time he became an expert consultant for the city's mayor - one Vladimir Putin.

And, analysts suggest, their partnership looks set to continue.

But the question of who wields the real power in the Kremlin will continue to fascinate, puzzle and perplex, the BBC's James Rodgers in Moscow says.

Mr Putin will remain Russia's most popular politician for the foreseeable future, which will give him huge influence over the man he mentored as his successor, our correspondent says.

Yes, while the curtain may have fallen on the Putin presidency, he will get an encore. Medvedev has officially nominated him for prime minister - the position to be confirmed by the Duma tomorrow -although he has already started holding meetings.

Medvedev probably would not be president today without the support of the Russian Orthodox church. It has declared Medvedev "a believer". He was baptised when he was 23-years-old. His wife has been active in numerous church-sponsored charities as she prepared for her role of Russia's 'First Lady'.

C is for cannabis



The UK Government has announced that cannabis is to be reclassed as a class B drug:

The home secretary said she wanted to reverse Tony Blair's 2004 downgrading of the drug because of "uncertainty" over its impact on mental health.

The move from class C means the maximum prison sentence for possessing cannabis rises from two years to five years.

Her statement to MPs came despite the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs' review - commissioned by Gordon Brown - saying it should stay class C.

And all this despite the fact that British Crime Survey statistics showed last October that the proportion of 16- to 24-year-olds using cannabis slumped from 28% a decade ago to 21% now, with its declining popularity accelerating after the decision to downgrade the drug to class C was announced in January 2004.

Gordon Brown can only hope that the many, many, many cannabis users is the UK will be too stoned to vote come the General Election.

Conquering the councils

Translation of a post by Vaughan Roderick

Parties' efforts to ensure at least a share of power in our county halls continue.

In Carmarthen the Independent group (along with one Liberal Democrat) have reached an agreement with Labour to preserve the coalition which had run the authority prior to the election. Fair enough. Carmarthenshire will be one of the handful of Welsh councils with Labour members in the cabinet for the next four years.

"Why Change A Winning Team?" is the slogan on the press release announcing the agreement. It doesn't explain what exactly is the meaning of a "winning team" in this context. In the election the Independent group stood still and Labour lost half its seats. "Winning Team"? You decide.

Over in Ceredigion everything could depend on the vote of chairman Odwyn Davies, a Plaid Cymru councillor. Basically the nationalists have to win the support of two additional councillors to take the reins. Will the independent group hold firm? We shall see.

In Gwynedd it seems that Plaid Cymru are negotiating with the Liberal Democrats. That group's support with five councillors is enough, more or less, to ensure a majority.

In Caerffili it seems that a particularly multicolour rainbow could appear with the cabinet including former Welsh Secretary, Ron Davies, and Plaid's Lindsay Whittle who stood against Ron in every parliamentary election between 1974 and 1997. It's possible Ken Etheridge, another Independent, will also be there. Kevin was a Liberal democrat. He left the Party after refusing to pay the costs of his Assembly campaign in Islwyn. In Kevin's opinion the Party feared he could win the constituency seat and thereby put in danger Mike German's list seat. Caerffili's cabinet would have quite a few scores to settle!

Meryl clings on to power


Meryl Gravell, despite being ignorant and tactless, has succeeded to cling on to power in Carmarthenshire.

The Labour group, despite losing over half its seats last Thursday, has decided to preserve the previous administration by propping up the Independents.

Plaid Cymru has described the continuation of the Independent-Labour coalition "as a slap in the face of democracy."

Councillor Arwel Lloyd said people had "clearly rejected" the old administration by voting in such numbers for Plaid.

He said that the people of Carmarthenshire had indicated that they wanted a change, but that would not happen as result of the coalition deal.

Elsewhere Independent-run administrations are to continue governing in Pembrokeshire, Powys and Ynys Môn, whilst a Plaid-Independent coalition is set to run Caerffili.

German decides

Mike German AM has finally decided when to step down as leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats:

"I have received a request from party officers that I should allow the party to complete the (Welsh Lib Dem) president's review of the constitution, including the rules for electing the leaders of the party, before I resign as leader.

"I have taken soundings within the party and the assembly group, and feel this is a sensible way forward.

"I said earlier in the year that I would stand down when it was sensible and practical to do so, and having received this request from the party's senior officers, I have decided that I will resign following the debate on the constitution at our autumn conference."

German is the first politician to be both leader of the Party and group leader in the Senedd, as well as being the first AM to become a Deputy First Minister.

As Matt Withers says, the favourite to succeed him is Jenny Randerson. Kirsty Williams (the Paul Flynn choice) is expected to give her a run for her money, and for comedy value Eleanor "Do You Know Who I Am" Burnham is expected to stand as well.

Brown washes his hands of Scotland


The Scotsman reports that Gordon Brown has
turned his back on what could be the biggest constitutional upheaval for 300 years
by saying a plebiscite on the break-up of the UK is a matter for Wendy Alexander:

Despite being an implacable unionist for his entire political career and against an independence referendum, Mr Brown said yesterday that he would leave the issue of a vote on separation to Wendy Alexander.

In doing so, he has also effectively ceded responsibility for the constitutional future of Scotland to Holyrood, even though it is a reserved matter for Westminster. The SNP has hailed this as a major breakthrough.

This means there is, for the first time, a majority in Holyrood in favour of a vote on the future of the Union, and the Scottish Labour leader could even table her own referendum bill.
The move has caused astonishment among Labour's political opponents, not least because Mr Brown has made so much of promoting Britishness and, in the event of independence, would see his Westminster seat disappear.

Nicol Stephen, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said: "Mr Brown appears to have washed his hands of this issue, which is astonishing considering he is a Scottish MP and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom."

A spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said: "Can we really be surprised that Gordon Brown is dithering? He doesn't do decisiveness."

Ms Alexander confirmed that Labour bringing forward its own referendum bill was "an option". A spokesman added that she would like to see a referendum held next year.

If Wendy thought the SNP would be troubled by this news, she was mistaken:
The SNP said it was "delighted" with Ms Alexander's U-turn.

A spokesman said: "The proof that Wendy Alexander's U-turn was an unorganised and freelance operation is confirmed by Downing Street's failure to endorse her comments.

"The political gain in this Labour Party fiasco is all for the SNP. The Downing Street statement implicitly concedes a referendum on independence is a matter for the Scottish Parliament to organise – a significant step forward. The Scottish Government welcomes that and welcomes that the entire Scottish constitutional debate is following the SNP's agenda."

Not everyone in the Scottish labour Party are very happy with Alexander's decision...
...George Foulkes, a Labour Lothians MSP, warned: "There is an argument to have a referendum quickly to shoot Salmond's fox, but I think we need to be very careful about this."

Another senior Labour MSP was furious the change of heart had been rushed through without proper consultation. "We should have been arriving at a decision on a referendum after discussion and debate within the party," he said.

A third said nobody had seen the U-turn coming, adding: "This is a hugely high-risk strategy that could play right into Salmond's hands."

Earlier, former Labour first minister Henry McLeish warned Ms Alexander she was playing a dangerous game that could end in independence, or the case for independence being strengthened.

He said: "If the name of the game is to try and shoot the fox by having an early referendum, the danger is it could backfire and we have a result which does not suit the unionist parties but will suit the SNP – because it will be the first recorded, proper vote on independence, which will only make their enthusiasm that much greater."


Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Tory leader, warned a referendum could come down to personalities rather than principle, with the SNP making the campaign "Alex Salmond vs Gordon Brown or Wendy Alexander".

Those results again

As I said on Sunday, there was some confusion over the local election results here in Wales.

The BBC has since then correcred its mistakes, so here are the (real) final results of Thursday's vote:

LAB -124 =342
PC +31 =205
CON +63 =174
LD +21 =162
OTH +9 =381

Blaenau Gwent/Bridgend/Caerphilly/
Cardiff/Carmarthenshire/Ceredigion/
Conwy/Denbighshire/Flintshire/
Gwynedd/Merthyr Tydfil/Monmouthshire/
Neath Port Talbot/Newport/Pembrokeshire/
Powys/Rhondda Cynon Taf/
Swansea/Torfaen/Vale of Glamorgan/
Wrexham/Ynys Môn

Obama Wins



It isn't official yet, but the mathematics and the votes cast in Indiana and North Carolina make quite clear that Senator Barack Obama has won the Democrat nomination for this year's presidential elections in the US.

Obama beat Clinton by 14 points and over 222,000 votes in North Carolina. In Indiana Clinton gained the slimmest of victories, only 2 points and 18,000 votes ahead of Obama. Obama, who gained 95 delegates, has 156 more delegates than the former first lady, who gained 83, and the speech Hillary delivered -despite claiming that she would continue on to the White House- had a subdued tone. The faces of Bill and Chelsea expressed unambiguously an air of defeat and dissappointment.

Running out of cash, and with doors beginning to close on her campaign, it is only a matter of time -perhaps days- before Hillary throws in the towel. The only thing she would achieve otherwise would be to damage her own party and its prospects in November.

The Shadow Of Saunders Lewis (Part 2)


Continuing from Part 1, the following is a translation and adaptation of excerpts from Professor Richard Wyn Jones's Rhoi Cymru'n Gyntaf

In what way did Saunders Lewis insist on getting his own way? In one thing, he wanted to ensure that it was his own understanding of 'Imposing Welsh' which would be accepted by the Party, namely that every local authority would be forced to work through the medium of Welsh only, and that the Welsh language should be the medium of education in every school in Wales. On top of that, he wanted to ensure a commitment to boycott Westminster, acting only via local authorities. In all of this, he was advocating the ideas of the Mudiad Cymreig, as these were the elements central to the programme its members had agreed on. There's no evidence that H.R. Jones needed a lot of persuading to accept these ideas either. The commitment to boycott Westminster would hardly cause a 'Sinn Feinner' like H.R. Jones to frown too much, and it's possible that demanding a monoglot Welsh speaking Wales would have been to his taste.

If so, is it fair to personalize what happened by claiming that it was Saunders Lewis who hijacked the agenda? Would it not be more correct to say instead that it was the intellectuals of the Mudiad Cymreig who came to dominate the new National Party's policy agenda? There are at least two reasons for believing that the personalized version is the more correct. Firstly there is little doubt that Lewis was the Mudiad Cymreig's leader. Without a doubt -and placing Ben Bowen Thomas to one side as a kind of 'special case'- Saunders Lewis was the most 'political' of the Mudiad's members. Because of this, one can hardly be too mistaken in suggesting that Saunders Lewis had the greatest influence in drawing up the Mudiad Cymreig's programme.

But more importantly, it can be shown that Saunders Lewis's constitutional ideas were different to those, at least, held by other members of the Mudiad Cymreig, and definately contrary to those the founders of the National Party wished to set as the Party's goals. Despite this, Saunders Lewis's ideas became the Party's policy -and later, dogma. In the context of its constitutional policy we can measure the supremacy of Saunders Lewis over the new party in its early years -and afterwards as well.

Evan Alwyn Owen's intention in suggesting the creation of a National Party was to seek self-government, which would then later lead to 'Full Independence'. H.R. Jones was fully in agreement with this view. It also appears that at least one of the members of the Mudiad Cymreig valued greatly the idea of independence. In a note in his diary which recorded the Mudiad's first meeting in Penarth, Ambrose Bebb noted 'the beginning of a Welsh National Party and Welsh independence'. Six days later he wrote a letter to D.J. Williams inviting him to join the group, describing it as 'working for independence...by any means available.'

However, as one of his letters published in the Western Mail in August 1923 suggested, Saunders Lewis did not share the same view as Bebb, H.R. Jones and Evan Alwyn Owen:

Now, if these safeguards of civilisation be impossible without some form of self-government, we must have it, or we must try to win it. But whatever form will provide those safeguards satisfies me, even a 'glorified county council'. What is any government but a glorified county council? And I add that if these safeguards can be assured without any radical change in the relation of England and Wales, then I for my part will be content. I agree that we cannot go back to 1282. But we can in some matters go back to pre-Tudor conditions.

Saunder Lewis did not wish to see Wales as an independent nation, because he saw no value in independence as a constitutional condition in its own right. In 1923 these remarks were but the expressed opinion of one man. But in 1925 this opinion became the position of a political party. The list of the Party's aims published after the meeting in Pwllheli are a testament to Lewis's success in hijacking the Party's agenda:
Objective: A Welsh speaking Wales. This includes:- (a) Ensuring Welsh culture in Wales. (b) Ensuring that Welsh is the only official language in Wales, and thus the obligatory language in all local authority discussions, and an obligatory language in all jobs under every local authority in Wales. (c) Ensure that all education from elementary School to University be through the medium of Welsh.

Poor Evan Alwyn Owen. By turning the National Party into a national movement, his hopes of it becoming a movement which would give priority to constitutional-political matters rather than linguistic-cultural ones were shattered. Only in 1931 was self-government incorporated into the Party's official aims.

Labour voters tell Brown to go


Life is just not getting any easier for Gordon Brown. Today's Times reports that 55% of Labour voters want Gordon Brown to resign. Yes, over a half of Labour supporters believe that Gordon Brown should stand down to make way for a more electable alternative.

Today’s Populus poll for the Times — the first survey since last Thursday’s local elections — shows a catastrophic collapse of confidence in Gordo’s leadership.

Brown’s personal rating has dropped sharply, along with that for his party. He now trails both Cameron and Clegg in the leadership stakes.


— Support for Labour has fallen by four points in a month to 29 per cent. The Tories have gained one point to 40 per cent; their lead of 11 points is the largest in the five years of Populus polls. The Liberal Democrats are two points up at 19 per cent, with other parties one point ahead at 12 per cent.

— The number who trust Mr Brown and Alistair Darling most to deal with economic problems has fallen to 30 per cent, down from 43 per cent in mid-March and 61 per cent in early September.

— The poll suggested that Mr Brown could not solve his problems by bringing in fresh faces with a big Cabinet reshuffle. Only 36 per cent think a reshuffle would make Labour more likely to win the next election. Only Labour voters, by a 51 to 41 per cent margin, support a reshuffle.

— More than two thirds of all voters, and nearly four fifths of Labour supporters, think that significant policy changes in areas such as the NHS, crime and tax would make Labour more likely to win the next election.

Brown, who has no mandate, should either seek that mandate himself or let somebody else in his party try their luck. The best he can do is play the role of caretaker while Labour decide who should lead them into a general election later this year.

Behind the scenes, David Miliband has been very, very busy in the last few days...