Blog Menai's Crystal Ball

Blog Menai offers some of his his predictions for the next general and Assembly elections based on the results of this month's local elections:

Ynys Môn: The data here isn't sufficient to base a prediction upon, but it's hard to see Labour's demise across Wales not having an effect on this marginal seat (though Môn has a history of going its own way). So Plaid to take the seat in the generals and hold it in the Assembly elections.

Arfon: Plaid to take the seat easily in the generals (on paper it is a Labour seat in the wake of boundary changes), and Plaid to hold the seat in the Assembly elections without problems.

Meirion Dwyfor: Plaid to hold the seat fairly easily in the generals, and to hold it in the Assembly elections -though Llais Gwynedd could be a challenge if things haven't changed there. Although this was Plaid's strongest seat by far in the last Assembly elections, I would expect Plaid to get a higher percentage in Arfon and Carmarthen East in the next Westminster and Assembly elections. Electoral harm has been done here.

Ceredigion: Plaid to continue moving forward, so that the Party should regain the Westminster seat in a fairly tight contest, and hold the Assembly seat fairly easily.

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Plaid to hold the Westminster and Assembly seats easily. This will be a stronger seat for Plaid than the two Gwynedd seats.

Llanelli: Scrutinising the local election figures I believe Plaid will take this seat for the first time in the generals with a majority of more than 5%. Helen Mary Jones will hold the seat easily in the Assembly as well.

Pembrokeshire Preseli: The Tories to hold the seat easily in the generals. Plaid and not Labour will come second in the Assembly elections.

Carmarthen West Pembrokeshire South: The Tories to take the seat from Nick Ainger in the generals easily. Labour could have problems even coming in second place. Plaid to take the seat from the Tories in the Assembly elections.

Gordon Brown pockets EU aid

The Treasury (aka Gordon Brown, the First Lord of the Treasury) has been siphoning off EU flood money. Jon Worth explains:

When any part of Europe is hit by a natural disaster, the country where the disaster strikes can appeal to the EU for assistance - these solidarity arrangements were put in place after the 2002 central European floods. So when parts of the UK were flooded last year it seemed sensible for the UK government to make an appeal to the fund. The government at first seemed reticent to ask for money, but after efforts from Richard Corbett MEP, Denis MacShane and others the request was made, and £110 million cash granted.

Perhaps there was reticience in making the original request knowing what would subsequently happen. If the UK gets more money from the EU budget, the UK in turn gets less money from the budget rebate - the mechanism Thatcher negotiated because Britain has few farmers and does not get much cash from CAP. So rather than giving the £110 million to the flood hit areas, only £31 million will reach the flood victims, as a rather frustrated Richard Corbett points out. The Treasury will pocket the extra £79 million, putting it into its general budget, to make up for the fact that there will be less budget rebate in this financial year.

Despite being a scandalous thing to do, this abuse of EU money has not caused David Cameron or the mainstream UK press to bat an eyelid. In a follow-up post, Jon Worth lists those politicians, newspapers and blogs that have reacted to the news:

1. Helga Truepel MEP is now on the warpath on this one, having written a press release on the issue (EN | DE) demanding clarifications from the UK government, and she’s also written a letter (PDF file here) to the chair of the EP’s Budgets Committee, Reimer Böge, demanding action - including inviting John Healey to Budgets Committee. Oh, that would be fun!
2. The Yorkshire Post has printed a new article on the topic, citing Richard Corbett’s critique of what’s going on. Corbett’s line is completely right - the Treasury is at fault, and I do wonder whether Healy was correctly advised. HMT after all thinks it’s the only reasonable economic ministry anywhere in Europe - I would beg to differ.
3. Articles about this matter have appeared on the website of the Wilts & Gloucestershire Standard and This is Gloucestershire. Both articles are complete rubbish, directing the fire at Brussels rather than London. I’ve commented in the comments forums on each site!
4. Neither of the other Labour MEPs potentially implicated in this - Linda McAvan (Corbett’s colleague in the North West) or Glyn Ford (South West) have said anything about the matter. Not much of a surprise I suppose, even though McAvan is a member of the EP’s environment committee. Glyn Ford’s website doesn’t even seem to have a functioning news function.
5. Graham Watson, Lib Dem MEP for the South West, has commented on the mess, as reported by the Aberavon & Neath Lib Dems.
6. The Ulster Unionists also have a position on this - demanding the Northern Ireland gets its full share of the money. Well, of £31 million I suppose?
7. There’s an interesting theory of why the government had to take this action in the comments on my previous post.

As Jon emphasises, "one thing is crystal clear in all of this: the decision to reduce the payment from from £110 million to £31 million was taken by the UK Government - the Treasury - and not by any bureaucrat, politician or official in Brussels."

If we can't trust the Treasury to handle payments from the EU Solidarity Fund, then there is a case for such payments to be made directly to the devolved administrations in the future. In the meantime and in light of mainstream media's lack of interest in such stories, we could do with at the very least our own MEPs -Jill Evans, Jonathan Evans, Glenys Kinnock, and Eluned Morgan- to keep us informed of such developments and voice an opinion on them. It should be their duty to do so.

Compare & contrast

Tony Blair vs John Major


David Cameron vs Gordon Brown

So does Gordon Brown lead or does he follow? I think Guido can answer that one

42

Labour rebels yesterday stepped up their campaign against Gordon Brown's plans to allow terrorist suspects to be detained without charge for 42 days by tabling an amendment to a Commons bill to block the change, The Guardian reports:

As Downing Street pledged to press ahead with its counter-terrorism bill, the rebels said they hoped to defeat the government after signing up MPs who voted in favour of Tony Blair's unsuccessful bid to extend to 90 days the period terror suspects could be detained without charge.

David Winnick, one of the main rebels, said: "I believe there is a reasonable chance that the government will be defeated, but I do accept that the government will do everything in its power to try to persuade some of my colleagues to agree on the basis of various concessions."

A bad result in Crewe & Nantwich (where a poll published tomorrow in the News of the World place the Tories eight points ahead of Labour) will no doubt encourage another u-turn from the Prime Minister.