Losing Crewe

Translation of a post by Vaughan Roderick

I'm jealous. Due to CF99 I'm stuck in Cardiff instead of walking the streets of Crewe and Nantwich.

As far as I know this is the first "big" by-election that I've missed for quite some time. To tell the truth after being to so many it's hard to differentiate between some of them especially the endless series of by-elections where the Liberals/Alliance/Liberal Democrats were conquering Conservative strongholds. Eastleigh...Newbury...Christchurch...it's hard to remember which one and which victorious candidate celebrated his fifteen minutes of fame.

There a few contests that stick in the memory...the second Govan by-election, for example, mainly because of the excellent dinner in the company of Dafydd Elis-Thomas in the Colonial restaurant. Ribble Valley was also memorable partly because of Nigel Evans's candidacy but also because of the wonderful sausages from "Clithiroes's World Famous Sausage Shop."

At least I could pick and choose interesting by-elections in England and Scotland. Here in Wales we had to pay unwavering attention to feeble contests like Pontypridd and Islwyn. The only memory I have of the former is the SDP's excellent croissonts in John and Maria's cafe and I can't remember anything about the latter.

I don't know what delicacies are available in Crewe and Nantwich but it certainly is an important election because the parties and the media have elevated it to that status. In the case of the Conservatives that is perfectly understandable. This is their Monmouthshire and their Staffordshire South though there's no way to know yet whether it will be a false dawn as in the former's case or a sign of change as in the latter's.

What confuses me somewhat is why has Labour played the game of elevating the election's importance by pouring MPs and ministers into the constituency and agreeing to Gordon Brown's appearance on the local radio's phone-in programme. It will be hard to dismiss the result as an "average mid term by-election" after such efforts.

One explanation being offered is that Labour were at one point afraid of coming third. That possibility has faded and that could be enough to save Gotrdon Brown's skin for the time being. Nevertheless that they have had to make such a large investment to avoid a drubbing in a seat that should be safe is a sign of how bad things are for Labour at the moment.

This is having an effect on the Assembly with our politicians beginning to discuss in earnest the effect a Conservative government in Westminster will have on politics in the Bay. This discussion will intensify over the coming weeks unless Tamsin Dunwoody performs some kind of miracle in Crewe.

Okay, it's time for me to make a prediction then. Remember that this is a prediction based completely on my experience of by-elections in the past rather than on any special knowledge of Crewe. What I have learned over the years is that majorities in by-elections tend to be far greater than expected. A majority of 6,000-8,000 to the Conservatives.

Rod returns

Rod Richards and Alun Davies will be appearing live on S4C's CF99 in under quarter of an hour. Will Rod be able to resist laying into Nick Bourne? Will he hit somebody, and if so who? We shall see.

Jan Berry vs Jacqui Smith

Smith accused of 'betrayal' over police pay

CAP Reform A 'Whitewash'

According to leaked documents the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) curerently being rubber stamped this week in Brussels is a "whitewash", New Europe reports:

...there is allegedly a compromise on the ceiling of individual farmers earning more than 300,000 Euro where the beneficiary stands to lose 70 percent of the subsidies while those earning lower amounts will lose far less. The earlier proposal was to drastically cut the subsidies to big farms but the pressure from lobby groups seems to have paid off, the source pointed out. On the subject of milk quotas, the document is more critical saying, “Milk quotas hold back the sector from achieving the objectives of CAP reform since they still reflect concerns of two decades back, instead of responding to present opportunities.” “In terms of agricultural markets, the phasing out of milk quotas and removal of set-aside will allow the farmers to better respond to market situations.”

The milk farmers claim that they will lose up to 300 million Euro from these cuts and they want the system to continue, but there is also friction between old 15 and new 10 farmer lobbies and that is affecting the proposals. Moreover, on the subject of disposal of pesticides to farmers, the European farmers are facing tough challenges as the number of active substances is going down with the new REACH regulations coming in whereby companies are reluctant to do the necessary tests for all pesticides as its cost and time consuming. The agriculture insiders predicted that even with compromises already agreed, the ministers are set to have a bitter political battle as each side tries to prove that the food crisis makes its preferred policy the only safe one to adopt. The two divergent view point were crystal clear as the British Finance Minister Alistair Darling wrote to EU counterparts saying it is “unacceptable that, at a time of significant food price inflation, the EU continues to apply very high import tariffs to many agricultural commodities,” while Germany’s Agriculture Minister, Horst Seehofer, argued that “we have to make sure that we can provide this continent with food sustainability. This cannot be done by taking away subsidies from European farmers.”

Deviocrity

The Conservatives and particularly Alun Cairns were taunted today in the Senedd for espousing a policy that differs to that of their party's leader, David Cameron, namely on top-up fees.

Among the hecklers was Jane the Hutt. I'm surprised Alun didn't remind her of the policy differences between her own Assembly colleagues and those at Westminster, such as the one announced yesterday by Edwina Hart.

There doesn't seem to be much point in these observations, and I'm rather dissappointed that Janet Ryder brought the subject up. Surely she has better things to do in Assembly time? Frankly I am not impressed.

The whole point of devolution is to allow our political representatives to formulate Welsh policies to address Welsh problems, and that includes the Welsh Conservatives.

If the Welsh Conservatives have anything to feel embarrassed about at the moment then it's their cock-up yesterday on equal access to services. Well, that and the split in their party on devolution.

Tin

Some think it's good, some think it's an insult, others think it's just shit, but what I'm more concerned about is
how much did it cost?

Flynn on blog 'censorship'

Paul Flynn MP yesterday added his two cents to the debate concerning politician blog 'censorship':

It’s entirely fair that public money should not be used for political propaganda. It’s a great turn-off anyway. Those who try party political rants guarantee that surfers visit their sites once only. This is the most compelling reason why I have avoided party political material from my website for the past nine years. In the 2001 General Election, I set up a special political website which was included in election expenses. It was a complete flop. For understandable reasons very few people bothered to read it.

The Welsh Assembly suggest permissible information should be confined to the less than riveting information about the AM, the Assembly, debates, surgeries and services to promote the Assembly but not political activities. Not much fun there.

MPs are fortunate in that we have a Communication Allowance with similar restrictions. We can use that to pass on information about our surgeries.

Those who want the joyful freedom of blogs and websites will have to go private. Why not? The running costs are modest and the public’s cynicism on politician’s expenses is oceanic.

ETA leader captured

French and Spanish police are hailing a major victory in the fight against terrorism with the arrest of the man they believe to be the head of the Basque separatist movement ETA. Jose Lopez Pena, 49, was detained at an apartment in Bordeaux, France, after a manhunt which spanned a quarter of a century.

He is believed to have been ETA's political and military chief for the past two years.

He is also thought to have been behind the bombing of Madrid airport in 2006 which lead to the end of ETA's de facto ceasefire with the Spanish government.

Three other suspected ETA members were picked up with him in Bordeaux. One of them, a woman, is believed to be the person who read out the end-of-ceasefire statement in a televised video.

Obama Crosses The Threshold

Despite Hillary Clinton's landslide victory in Kentucky, Barack Obama has won a majority of pledged delegates in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Clinton won Kentucky by more than 30 points, but Obama's share of the state's 51 delegates was enough put him over the threshold.

Obama is expected to pick up at least 14 delegates in Kentucky, and that will give him 1,627 of the 3,253 pledged delegates at stake in all of primaries and caucuses.

Obama will also pick up a win in Oregon, giving him the larger share of the state's 52 delegates.

Obama's top strategist, David Axelrod, said getting the pledged delegate majority was an "important milestone," but not the end of the trail.

Neither candidate is expected to reach the 2,026 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination.

That means the race is likely to be settled by "superdelegates" -- party leaders and officials who will cast votes at the Democratic convention in August.

Speaking in Iowa, where he won the first-in-the-nation caucuses, Obama told supporters, "it was in this great state where we took the first steps of an unlikely journey to change America."