Between a rock and a hard place

For the Labour Party, Gordon Brown is a liability. He has until conference season next September to turn things around or to quit, assuming that he survives that long as Premier.

The trouble for the Labour Party, as Iain Dale points out, is that the public and the media alike are not likely to allow the government to replace a Prime Minister without a mandate with a second Prime Minister without a mandate. Labour would be faced with the choice between calling an election or plummeting even further in the polls, and possibly losing its place as an alternative to the Conservatives to become instead the third force in UK politics.

The threat of an election may deter senior Labour politicians from kicking Brown out right now, given their low standing in the polls. Then again, those same politicians may feel secure enough in their own constituencies to be willing to sacrifice less secure seats held by backbenchers. Indeed, some may wish to cut their losses, with the hope that four or five years in opposition will revitalise the Party.

The only alternative they have right now -as one or two Welsh bloggers have suggested- is for Gordon to reshuffle his cabinet.

However, the honourable thing for an unpopular and unelected Prime Minister to do is, in my opinion, to call an election, and let the people decide.

Cameron and the constitution

From the Scotsman:

David Cameron yesterday publicly offered to work with Alex Salmond's government, insisting he would respect the will of the Scottish people if he became prime minister.

The Conservative leader promised that if he took over in Downing Street while the SNP held power at Holyrood he would not frustrate Nationalist initiatives.

Aware that he might win power without a mandate from Scotland, Mr Cameron said he wanted to send the message that he would observe the democratic authority of the Scottish Government.

The Conservative leader has been warned that a Tory victory at the next Westminster general election might fuel the pro-independence movement in Scotland, particularly if the Tories secure only a small number of seats in Scotland.

In his keynote speech to the Scottish Conservative Conference in Ayr, Mr Cameron said:

"To the people of Scotland I make this guarantee: whatever the outcome in Scotland of the next general election, a Conservative government will govern the whole of the United Kingdom, including Scotland, with respect.

"Whoever is Scotland's first minister, I would be a prime minister who acts on the voice of the Scottish people, and will work tirelessly for consent and consensus so we strengthen the Union."

Mr Cameron also said he was prepared to compromise over the Barnett Formula, the controversial rule which allocates extra spending to Scotland, and the voting rights of Scottish MPs to protect the Union.

The Western Mail concentrates on this latter aspect:

Answering the anomalies created by the Barnett Formula will be “essential” for a Tory Government, David Cameron said yesterday.

But the Conservative leader said he would not put getting to grips with the controversial funding system above maintaining the Union.

In a speech to the Scottish Conservatives in Ayr yesterday, Mr Cameron said:

“There are some who would simply blame constitutional and economic arrangements … sort out West Lothian, renegotiate Barnett, and everything will be fine, they say.

“Sorry, I don’t think that’s an adequate explanation for the separatism we’re seeing today.

“The West Lothian question and Barnett Formula have been around and been debated for decades – don’t tell me it’s only now that they’ve lit the separatist touchpaper.

“Of course, that doesn’t mean we should ignore them.

“It’s essential that we find answers to any unfairness in the Union – and to questions of accountability, justice and democracy.

“And unlike Labour – who sweep it under the carpet and hope it goes away – we will take those questions seriously.”

A Tory plan to address the West Lothian question – whether Scottish and Welsh MPs should vote on matters that only affect England – is expected to be announced before the summer recess.

Mr Cameron added:

“If it should ever come to a choice between constitutional perfection and the preservation of our nation, I know my choice. Better an imperfect Union than a broken one.

“Better an imperfect Union than a perfect divorce.”

That's a lot of rhetoric but not a lot of substance. We already have an 'imperfect Union'. We'll have to wait until the Tories come up with some concrete ideas to see whether they're really interested in departing from the constitutional status quo, or just looking for a different carpet to brush things under.

The Long Goodbye

Come in number 52, your time is up.

Hillary's hope

It looks like Hillary Clinton is pinning her presidential hopes on Barack Obama being assassinated next month. You couldn't make it up.