Wednesday, 23 July 2008

Elsewhere today...

Guido notes that the new owner of The New Statesman has bought the LabourHome blog for a five figure sum.

The Welsh Lobbyist points to two interesting articles concerning devolution written by Professor Vernon Bogdanor.

The European Commission has warned it may force US diplomats to apply for visas to travel within the European Union from next year, in retaliation for the US' failure to broaden visa-free travel to all EU member states.

More bad news for Brown

Ipsos-MORI have published their political monitor for the month of July. You can read it HERE.

The poll, conducted between the 18th and 20th July, gives the following results regarding UK voting intentions:

CON 47%(+2)
LAB 27%(-1)
LIB DEM 15%(-1)
NAT 2%

The poll has nothing but more bad news for the Westminster government and for Gordon Brown, as the UK Polling Report explains:

Their net approval rating is at minus 59, Gordon Brown’s net approval rating is minus 51. 75% of people now think that the economic conditions in the country will get worse in the next 12 months, the highest MORI have ever recorded in the 29 years they have been asking the question. Only 11% expected things to improve.

In contrast David Cameron’s net approval rating is now plus 21, with 50% approving of the way he is doing his job. This isn’t as high as Tony Blair’s best scores when he first became Leader of the Opposition (his highest rating was plus 30 in March 1995), but is the sort of rating Blair used to receive around 1996 and early 1997. On the other hand, people are evenly split 44% agree, 44% disagree on whether David Cameron is ready to be Prime Minister just yet.

MORI have repeated a question that asked a while back, seeing whether the popularity of parties ran ahead or behind their leaders. It suggests that the Conservative party now has a more positive image than the Labour party, and that while David Cameron has a positive effect on the Conservative party (54% like Cameron, compared to 42% who like his party. 19% of people say they like Cameron but not his party, with only 9% saying the opposite), Gordon Brown is a considerable drag on the Labour party (only 29% like Brown, but 39% like his party. 21% of people say they like Labour, but not Brown, only 11% say the opposite).

Torygraph antics

The Daily Telegraph claims that Barack Obama's decision to meet Tony Blair on his UK visit a day before he meets Gordon Brown is a "snub" to the Prime Minister.

I hardly think that Obama has any motive for snubbing Brown, and let's remember that Blair is no longer a politician, and certainly isn't a rival for the premiership! Now, if Obama met with Cameron first then there would be some justification for such a claim, but that isn't the case.

Blair is a popular figure in the US, which is why Obama wants to be seen with him. Blair's current role in the Middle East also presents the presidential candidate with a valid excuse to do so. It has nothing to do with Obama's opinion of Brown and everything to do with becoming the 44th president of the United States.

With so much going wrong for Gordon at the moment, I don't understand why the paper feels the need to make stuff like this up.

Assembly sub-committee calls for cheaper travel

Free and cheaper public transport should be more widely available in Welsh rural areas to combat poverty, says a report by the Assembly's rural development sub-committee:

The Rural Deprivation in Wales report, which will be launched at the Royal Welsh Show, said fuel, travel costs and house prices were all higher in many rural areas than in urban areas, while average incomes tended to be lower.

But all too often, poverty was seen as a purely urban phenomenon, said the AMs.

Members said this had to change, with the assembly government doing more to deal with problems of poverty and deprivation.

The AMs want a broadening of concessionary bus fare schemes to allow older people to access cheaper travel on other modes of transport, such as trains, where adequate bus provision is not available.

The committee also wants to see cheaper transport for young people.

It also recommends that planning guidance be strengthened to enable more affordable housing to be developed in rural areas and to allow local authorities to release more land for this purpose.

These all seem like sensible suggestions and desirable policies to me, though I have to declare an interest: as the holder of a free bus pass (due to my disability rather than my age!) I'd just love to be able to travel by train for free. It would certainly make trips to Cardiff more affordable. The last time I travelled to the capital the cost of a rail ticket from Bangor to Cardiff was reasonable enough, but the length of the journey makes forking out money for overnight lodging inevitable - unless you don't mind spending a total of 10 hours of the day on a train.

But for those without passes who are dependent on public transport, the situation is a dire one. The cost of bus journeys with Arriva buses hits the wallet hard even over short distances. The KMP buses in Gwynedd and Môn are much more reasonable in their fares, but their routes are limited. Another problem is the shortage of express routes: it takes over an hour to cross Anglesey from Holyhead to Bangor and three hours to cross Gwynedd from Bangor to the south of the county.

Tuesday, 22 July 2008

Alun Ffred confirmed as new Heritage Minister


Well, it's no great surprise that Alun Ffred Jones has become the Assembly Government's new Heritage Minister. Congratulations to Ffred, who is my local AM.

The appointment was announced today by the First Minister:

Mr Morgan said Alun Ffred Jones was "highly qualified" for the job. Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones also welcomed him into the post.

Arfon AM Alun Ffred Jones, a former teacher, television director and journalist, was elected an assembly member for Caernarfon in 2003.

He said it was a "tremendous privilege" to be asked to serve in the cabinet and he was "determined to build on the strong foundations laid by Rhodri Glyn Thomas, and to deliver on the commitments set out in One Wales".

Mr Jones added: "Through being an assembly member for Arfon I also hope I can contribute to the objectives of this government of uniting our nation, spreading prosperity and building confidence in our ability to take good decisions in the interest of Wales."

First Minister Rhodri Morgan, welcoming his new cabinet colleague, said he was sure he would make "a very positive contribution".

His deputy Ieuan Wyn Jones said: "We are fortunate that he bring such wide experience with him as well as his commitment as our deputy group leader to delivering One Wales."

Welsh-speaker Alun Ffred Jones, who was educated at the University of Wales, Bangor, also speaks French.

He is a former leader of Gwynedd Council, chair of the community company Antur Nantlle and chair of Nantlle Vale Football Club. He lists his main political interests as broadcasting, community development and the economy.

Welfare reform and the would-be First Ministers

Labour has decided to place itself even more to the right of centre with its proposed welfare reforms. I challenge any Welsh Labour politicians to defend and support these proposals to brow-beat the unemployed. I also challenge the contenders for the leadership of the Labour Party in the Senedd to make unequivocally clear whether they support these proposed reforms or not.

It is quite clear that welfare is a matter that needs to be devolved to Cardiff Bay in order to ensure that the application of any such policies does not make a bad situation even worse here in Wales. But are there any Labour members of the Welsh cabinet with the courage to air such a view? Or will they follow their Westminster colleagues in becoming Cameroonian Conservatives?

Plaid Cymru's presidency

Translation of a post by Dyfrig Jones:

It's a bit of a stretch to say that i'm close bosom friends with Elfyn Llwyd, but there's a family connection going back for years. To be honest, I like Elfyn a lot, both as a person and as a politician. In contrast to quite a few MPs, he has succeeded in serving his constituency - and his nation - in Westminster without forgetting how to be a normal person.

On the other hand, I don't know Dafydd Iwan very well That is to say, I know him better, perhaps, than the proverbial Mr Jones of Llanrug, bbut we have a professional relationship, and not a personal one. Nonetheless, I will vote for Dafydd Iwan in the election to choose Plaid Cymru's president, because I believe he is the best person to do the job.

When the office of the President was looked at again following the execution and resurrection of Ieuan Wyn Jones a few years ago, it was decided that the purpose of the President is to be a bridge between the membership and the leadership. I believe that Elfyn and Dafydd have the potential to be able to do that very effectively, but I can't in all seriousness see how - practically - Elfyn can nurture a connection with members across the country while serving in Westminster. We know that an MP's life is busy at the best of times, never mind being an MP to a small party which has to share the responsibility for the whole political universe between 3 members. But on top of that, there's the fact that Elfyn spends most of his week in London, hundreds of miles from most of the membership.

For me, Elfyn Llwyd would have to give up his job as an MP - something that would deprive the party of years of experience and a mountain of ability - in order to be an effective president of the party. So Dafydd Iwan will get my vote, without a doubt.

Monday, 21 July 2008

Brown's plight worse than Major's was. Much worse.

Mike Smithson notes:

Anybody trying to predict whether Brown’s Labour has any chance at all of turning things round should look at the above table very carefully. For it shows all the Guardian’s ICM surveys for the period from 21 months before the May 1 1997 general election which, of course, brought Blair’s Labour to power in a landslide.

Just compare the polling figures from the August of 1995 with what happened at the election itself - CON 31.4%: LAB 44.4%: LD 17.2%. The Tory 31% share is what they were polling at this precise point in the electoral cycle and what they averaged from the firm in all the Guardian’s surveys in the period until polling day.

The latest YouGov, ComRes and ICM polls are all showing a Labour deficit of 20% or more which, as can be seen, is worse than Major’s Tory party was experiencing at the same point in the electoral cycle

There can be little doubt that a descendant of one of William IV's lovechildren will be the next Prime Minister.

All eyes on Glasgow East


The Economist notes:

ALEX Salmond, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), is insisting that this week's parliamentary election in Glasgow East will result in a "political earthquake." Long considered a safe Labour seat, it is now being hotly contested—just the latest challenge to Gordon Brown's wobbling government. Both parties were in full campaign mode in Scotland over the weekend.

Despite Mr Salmond's bravado, a new poll shows Labour with 52 percent support in the district, compared with 35 percent for the SNP. But as The Scotsman reports, Labour officials are "keen to play down expectations on the size of the victory they expect." Anything less than a thumping win will be seen as another blow to Mr Brown, a Scot himself.

But Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting points out:
Hartlepool September 2004: The only poll suggested that Labour would hold onto the seat by margin of 33%. On the day the party won by 7%. Labour’s position was overstated by 26%.

Blaenau Gwent June 2006 The only poll suggested that Labour would regain the seat from an independent by a 12% margin. On the day the independent won by a 10% margin. Labour’s position was overstated by 22%

Crewe & Nantwich May 2008. The polls showing the Tories 6%, 8% and 13% ahead. Actual result had the Tories with a 19% margin. The best poll overstated Labour position by 6%

Sarkozy's imminent Irish PR disaster


Sarkozy, Sarkozy, Sarkozy. This whole presidency of the European Council thing seems to really have gone to his head. Barely a day goes by without Sarkozy appearing in news relationg to the EU.

Now he's off to Ireland, no doubt to explain to our neighbours why No in fact means Yes.

Bruno Waterfield notes:

Last week, Mr Sarkozy particularly irritated Brian Cowen and his Irish government with his demand for Ireland to hold a second referendum.

Then as he cut his visit back (Mr Sarkozy has to rush back for a key constitutional vote at Versailles), the French president also managed to alienate senior Irish opposition politicians - all people who campaigned for a Yes vote.

As I write, just hours before Mr Sarkozy arrives in Dublin, French diplomats and Irish officials were flapping around to prevent Fine Gael and Labour leaders turning their backs on the visit.

Mr Sarkozy first offered both No and Yes campaigners a 60 minute "roundtable" at the French embassy.

But prominent pro-Lisbon Treaty politicians, Labour leader Eamon Gilmore and Fine Gael chief Enda Kenny, are upset at being lumped in with unelected (and even worse, victorious) No campaigners like Libertas' Declan Ganley.

The French President's plan to give them three minutes each has led to last-minute Labour and Fine Gael snubs and yet another PR disaster for Paris.

The Irish Independent reports that the prime minister is to tell the French president that he is "swelling the ranks" of the No side each time he intervenes, and the EU Observer notes;
The anger mirrors the feelings expressed when another French politician - foreign minister Bernard Kouchner - made an unwelcome intervention just ahead of the Irish referendum when he implied that Irish citizens would be considered ungrateful in the rest of Europe if they rejected the treaty.

The treaty was rejected by 53.4 percent against, with 46.6 percent in favour. The anti-treaty campaign touched on a wide range of issues including tax sovereignty, neutrality and democratic accountability.

The high turnout and the relatively wide margin between the Yes and the No votes have lessened Mr Cowen's room for manuoeuvre.

But Mr Sarkozy, who currently heads the EU, has made it clear that he is seeking to start putting shape to an exit strategy when EU leaders meet in October and have a solution wrapped up by the end of the year.

The Irish government, for its part, has repeatedly said that October is too early for a solution.

Ahead of the meeting, Sinn Fein, which campaigned against the treaty, said that "subtle threats" of Ireland's isolation within the union are "nonsense" adding that a "new treaty negotiation is the only way forward."

2008-9 Guide to Political Blogging in the UK

In early September TOTAL POLITICS, in association with APCO WORLDWIDE will publish the 2008-9 Guide to Political Blogging in the UK. It will contain articles on blogging by some of Britain's leading bloggers, together with a directory of UK political blogs, and a series of Top 20s and Top 10s. The book will be available at the Green Party, TUC, Labour, LibDem and Tory Conferences, where TOTAL POLITICS will have exhibition stands.

They're asking for your votes to decide the Top 100 UK Political Blogs. Simply email your Top Ten (ranked from 1 to 10) to toptenblogs@totalpolitics.com. If you have a blog, please encourage your readers to do the same. Iain Dale will then compile the Top 100 from those that you send in. Just order them from 1 to 10. Your top blog gets 10 points and your tenth gets 1 point.

The deadline for submitting your Top 10 is Friday August 15th. Please type Top 10 in the subject line. Or you can of course leave your Top 10 in the Comments on Iain's post.

Once all the entries are in a lucky dip draw will take place and the winner will be sent £100 worth of political books!
The rules are simple:

1. Please only vote once
2. Only blogs based in the UK, run by UK residents are eligible or based on UK politics are eligible
3. Votes must be cast before Friday 15 August
4. Blogs chosen must be listed in the Total Politics Blog Directory.
5. You must send a list of TEN blogs, ranked. Any entry containing fewer than ten blogs will not count.
6. Anonymous votes left in the comments will not count. You must give a name

So, once again, the email address to send your TOP TEN BLOGS to is...

toptenblogs@totalpolitics.com

Lib Dems lament Lembit


It looks like the Liberal Democrats are fed up with Lembit. It looks like even Nick Clegg wants him to shut up.

Six reasons to give Rhodri Glyn's job to Alun Ffred

Translation of a post by Blog Menai:

Ieuan Wyn is hardly a reader of blogmenai, but I'll try to persuade him anyway.

(1) Ffred speaks Welsh. Plaid can't possibly give this job to somebody who doesn't speak Welsh.
(2) Ffred's employment background is almost perfect for the post.
(3) Ffred doesn't smoke.
(4) Ffred is the first and not the last to go home during a drinking session.
(5) Ffred has run a large public body successfully - Gwynedd Council back in those days long ago when that body was fairly popular.
(6) Ffred has appropriate levels of cynicism (ie very high) to ensure he has some kind of balanced relationship with his civil servants.

Bookworm meme

I don't generally like memes, but this one on Peter Black's blog tickled my fancy:

I have borrowed this meme from Alix Mortimer because it looks like a bit of fun for a lazy Sunday afternoon (and I don't get many of those nowadays). The thing is I do not have much time for reading which is why my home is full of half-read and barely started books. I plan to do more but do not know when.

The Big Read reckons that the average adult has only read 6 of the top 100 books they’ve printed.
1) Look at the list and bold those you have read.
2) Italicize those you intend to read.
3) Underline the books you love.
4) Strike out the books you have no intention of ever reading, or were forced to read at school and hated.
5) Reprint this list in your own blog so we can try and track down these people who’ve only read 6 and force books upon them

1 Pride and Prejudice - Jane Austen
2 The Lord of the Rings - JRR Tolkien
3 Jane Eyre - Charlotte Bronte
4 The Harry Potter Series - JK Rowling
5 To Kill a Mockingbird - Harper Lee
6 The Bible
7 Wuthering Heights - Emily Bronte
8 Nineteen Eighty Four - George Orwell
9 His Dark Materials - Philip Pullman
10 Great Expectations - Charles Dickens
11 Little Women - Louisa M Alcott
12 Tess of the D’Urbervilles - Thomas Hardy
13 Catch 22 - Joseph Heller
14 Complete Works of Shakespeare>
15 Rebecca - Daphne Du Maurier
16 The Hobbit - JRR Tolkien>
17 Birdsong - Sebastian Faulks
18 Catcher in the Rye - JD Salinger
19 The Time Traveller’s Wife - Audrey Niffenegger
20 Middlemarch - George Eliot
21 Gone With The Wind - Margaret Mitchell
22 The Great Gatsby - F Scott Fitzgerald
23 Bleak House - Charles Dickens
24 War and Peace - Leo Tolstoy
25 The Hitch Hiker’s Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams
26 Brideshead Revisited - Evelyn Waugh
27 Crime and Punishment - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
28 Grapes of Wrath - John Steinbeck
29 Alice in Wonderland - Lewis Carroll
30 The Wind in the Willows - Kenneth Grahame
31 Anna Karenina - Leo Tolstoy
32 David Copperfield - Charles Dickens
33 Chronicles of Narnia - CS Lewis
34 Emma - Jane Austen
35 Persuasion - Jane Austen
36 The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe - CS Lewis
37 The Kite Runner - Khaled Hosseini
38 Captain Corelli’s Mandolin - Louis De Bernieres
39 Memoirs of a Geisha - Arthur Golden
40 Winnie the Pooh - AA Milne
41 Animal Farm - George Orwell
42 The Da Vinci Code - Dan Brown
43 One Hundred Years of Solitude - Gabriel Garcia Marquez
44 A Prayer for Owen Meaney - John Irving
45 The Woman in White - Wilkie Collins
46 Anne of Green Gables - LM Montgomery
47 Far From The Madding Crowd - Thomas Hardy
48 The Handmaid’s Tale - Margaret Atwood
49 Lord of the Flies - William Golding
50 Atonement - Ian McEwan
51 Life of Pi - Yann Martel
52 Dune - Frank Herbert
53 Cold Comfort Farm - Stella Gibbons
54 Sense and Sensibility - Jane Austen
55 A Suitable Boy - Vikram Seth
56 The Shadow of the Wind - Carlos Ruiz Zafon
57 A Tale Of Two Cities - Charles Dickens
58 Brave New World - Aldous Huxley
59 The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time - Mark Haddon
60 Love In The Time Of Cholera - Gabriel Garcia Marquez
61 Of Mice and Men - John Steinbeck
62 Lolita - Vladimir Nabokov
63 The Secret History - Donna Tartt
64 The Lovely Bones - Alice Sebold
65 Count of Monte Cristo - Alexandre Dumas
66 On The Road - Jack Kerouac
67 Jude the Obscure - Thomas Hardy
68 Bridget Jones’s Diary - Helen Fielding
69 Midnight’s Children - Salman Rushdie
70 Moby Dick - Herman Melville
71 Oliver Twist - Charles Dickens
72 Dracula - Bram Stoker
73 The Secret Garden - Frances Hodgson Burnett
74 Notes From A Small Island - Bill Bryson
75 Ulysses - James Joyce
76 The Bell Jar - Sylvia Plath
77 Swallows and Amazons - Arthur Ransome
78 Germinal - Emile Zola
79 Vanity Fair - William Makepeace Thackeray
80 Possession - AS Byatt
81 A Christmas Carol - Charles Dickens
82 Cloud Atlas - David Mitchell
83 The Color Purple - Alice Walker
84 The Remains of the Day - Kazuo Ishiguro
85 Madame Bovary - Gustave Flaubert
86 A Fine Balance - Rohinton Mistry
87 Charlotte’s Web - EB White
88 The Five People You Meet In Heaven - Mitch Albom
89 Adventures of Sherlock Holmes - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
90 The Faraway Tree Collection - Enid Blyton
91 Heart of Darkness - Joseph Conrad
92 The Little Prince - Antoine De Saint-Exupery
93 The Wasp Factory - Iain Banks
94 Watership Down - Richard Adams
95 A Confederacy of Dunces - John Kennedy Toole
96 A Town Like Alice - Nevil Shute
97 The Three Musketeers - Alexandre Dumas
98 Hamlet - William Shakespeare
99 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - Roald Dahl
100 Les Miserables - Victor Hugo

Sunday, 20 July 2008

Down to the wire in Glasgow East

From The Sunday Herald:

THE SCALE of the protest vote by former Labour supporters disillusioned with Gordon Brown will determine who wins the Glasgow East by-election. Canvass returns from both Labour and the SNP point to a knife-edge contest on Thursday, decided by less than 1000 votes.

With only four full days of cam-paigning left, the sheer scale of those yet to make up their minds has been identified by the front-runners as holding the key to victory.

Despite a weekend poll for the Daily Mail putting Labour on 52%, 17 points clear of the SNP, the sample has largely been dismissed as "rogue" by both Labour and SNP campaign teams.
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In 2005 Labour won 61% of the vote on a 48% turnout. The Mail poll, conducted by Progressive Scottish Opinion, would mean Labour support holding firm in Glasgow, a result undermined last night by yet another UK poll that showed Labour trailing the Conservatives by 21 points - the biggest advantage ever shown in the ComRes polls for the Independent On Sunday. The poll put Labour on 24%, the Tories on 45%, with the Liberal Democrats on 16%.

Of those questioned, 68%, including 38% of Labour voters, said they believed Labour would lose the next election.

However, if Labour lose in Glasgow this week, the combination of failing to hold Labour's 25th-safest seat, alongside a poll pointing to a three-figure Tory majority, will raise serious questions about the prime minister's ability to remain in office amid rumours of a potential autumn challenge to his leadership.

Campaigning in the constituency for the eighth time, First Minister Alex Salmond said his party's own private polling showed those "undecided" would determine the result this week. "This thing is there for us. Our own support is strong and motivated, and we've already made up the ground that the Conservatives did to win in Crewe and Nantwich," he said.

The SNP's private polling still shows Labour's Margaret Curran marginally ahead on 26%, with the SNP candidate, John Mason, four points behind. Labour's internal polling has also told them that the result on Thursday will be "tight as hell". However, the numbers of the undecided will worry Downing Street and the Labour Party in Scotland more than it will worry Salmond.

Mason indicted a subtle shift in the SNP's strategy, saying he would be emphasising to the undecided in the constituency that voting SNP was a safe option. He said : "I'm under no illusion about how difficult it is for people who've normally voted Labour giving us their vote. But this is a by-election, not a general election. The government will not change if they vote for me. But it will send a message that the government in London is out of touch and cannot continue as they have been."

Labour also appear to have re-focused their efforts on the undecided. Curran, who should have been upbeat given the Mail opinion poll, said she was "taking nothing for granted" and would continue to campaign as though she was fighting a Labour marginal and "fighting for every vote".

Considering the size of Labour's previous majority in Glasgow East, even a marginal SNP victory would count as a complete hammering for Labour on a par with Crewe and Nantwich, but this time in Gordon's back yard.

Jill Evans confirmed as lead European candidate

Jill Evans will be Plaid Cymru’s lead candidate for the upcoming European elections following hustings across Wales and an internal election. Jill Evans will be joined on Plaid’s list of candidates by Eurig Wyn, Ioan Bellin and Natasha Asghar.

Jill Evans said:

“It’s a great honour for me to once again lead the Plaid Cymru team for the European elections. There is much hard work to be done over the coming months and I’m looking forward greatly to working with Eurig, Ioan and Natasha as we put forward the very strong reasons for people to vote for Plaid Cymru come polling day.

"We’ve been travelling throughout Wales over the last month speaking to party members in our hustings meetings and all candidates have acted with great enthusiasm and professionalism. It will be a pleasure to work together as a team, and I know that we will all do our best for Wales.”

Plaid Cymru’s Chief Executive, Gwenllian Lansdown said:
“This has been an excellent contest between candidates who have all proved that they would be worthy representatives of Plaid in the forthcoming elections. All have put forward some very compelling reasons to be chosen. Our final list has four candidates of the highest standard and I know that they will work well together in order to maximise Plaid’s vote.

“Jill has proved herself to be a first rate MEP over the past 9 years and it’s come as no surprise that the party has once again placed its trust in her as our lead candidate. But our team of candidates have all shown that they have the skills and enthusiasm to do the job and they would all make excellent representatives for Wales in the European Parliament.”

Sunday open thread

Who should be given the heritage portfolio following Rhodri Glyn's resignation? Who is ahead in the 'race' to succeed Rhodri Morgan? Should Torchwood be relocated to Caernarfon? Would Dan O'Neill like to spend his holidays in Llŷn? Is Max Boyce actually funny?

These are but five of the many subjects you may wish to comment on.

Saturday, 19 July 2008

Cigars and sinners

Translation of a post by Vaughan Roderick:

It's a strange story. Why exactly did Rhodri Glyn resign - or to be more correct why exactly did Ieuan Wyn ask for his resignation? After all walking into a pub forgetting you have a cigar in your hand isn't a serious transgression. Breaking the smoking ban intentionally or refusing to put out a cigarette would be a different matter but as far as I know nobody has accused the minister of the one or the other.

What happened then?

Well, let's turn the clock back. Appointing Rhodri Glyn as a minister was a gamble for Ieuan Wyn Jones and he knew that. Without a doubt his deputy was an able and colourful politician capable of doing the work. Being too colourful was the problem. Rhodri had a bad name for not controlling his drinking. Nobody believed, and nobody believes that he has a particularly serious drinking problem just that one glass leads to the next sometimes and that leads to a headache and regrets in the morning.

That's not a big thing. Most of us have found ourselves in exactly the same situation. What is certain is that Ieuan would ask for Rhodri to promise that this would not happen if he were to be appointed to the cabinet. It seems that Rhodi succeeded to convince Ieuan as the Plaid Cymru leader was sufficiently confident about him to promise Rhodri Morgan that the new Heritage Minister would not cause any problems.

Thus were things until the Book of the Year ceremony gaffe. There is no evidence at all that the confusion in that event had anything to do with drinking. Indeed all the evidence suggests the contrary. A friend of mine was sitting at the same table as Rhodri Glyn during the ceremony. He swears that the minister was completely sober and I believe him. Nonetheless the events of that night reminded the political class of his problems in the past. In that sense the minister put himself "on probation". The last thing he could afford to do was to be seen under the influence of drink between the awards night and the summer holidays.

That is what happened in the Eli Jenkins on Wednesday night. The cigar is a red herring - there's a sentence for you.

A joke for the weekend...

...Peter Black lecturing Adam Price on political good judgemnet.

I thought that would make you laugh.

Carwyn's cards on the table



Carwyn Jones last night began his campaign to succeed Rhodri Morgan as First Minister. Speaking to an audience of party members last night, what he had to say would send a shudder down the back of any Blairites. Carwyn places himself firmly on the left of the political spectrum, and not only wants to embrace trade unions with open arms, but even wants to see a return to nationalisation.

“Times have changed a lot since then but most recently we have seen a rapid change in people’s attitudes towards the unbridled free market economy.

“In fact, I would go so far as to say that the free market orthodoxy that has governed our thinking for so long is dead. We must also ditch the belief that the private sector will always do things better than the public.

“It was believed that the less regulation you had, the more prosperity you could create. This was only partially true, because that market failed to iron out inequality and has now overreached itself in its overconfidence. We see that in the credit crunch. The fact that American banks were lending to those who could never afford to pay them back, and that British banks bought those debts from them would have struck us as insanity had we known about it, but that’s what they did.

“Yet the problems the banking sector has created have not caused them much pain... there was no reduction in bonuses paid in the City, far from it. We cannot allow this to happen again.

“With all this going on, it is understandable that those who earn far less are restless. Telling most public sector workers they must tighten their belts when others are getting vast pay rises elsewhere in the public sector is not going to be a welcome message.

“Of course, we shouldn’t overlook or underestimate the power of the private sector to create wealth for our people.

“We have some good examples in Wales of co-operatives working well. Tower Colliery is a shining example of this.

“Yet we know there are many areas where the private sector cannot deliver according to our priorities. Health and education are the most obvious examples. We got rid of the internal market in education in the first Assembly term and we’re moving towards doing the same in health.

“This is because we believe that public provision is better in these areas.

“I believe that it should no longer be taboo to ask whether some of the sectors of the economy privatised over the last 20 years have actually functioned well as a result.

“This is not a plea for wholesale nationalisation... We do need however as a party to make the case for a genuinely mixed economy. We need to work more with the trade unions to make the case for the public sector. We as a party were born of the unions and we should never lose sight of that fact."