More bad news for Brown

Ipsos-MORI have published their political monitor for the month of July. You can read it HERE.

The poll, conducted between the 18th and 20th July, gives the following results regarding UK voting intentions:

CON 47%(+2)
LAB 27%(-1)
LIB DEM 15%(-1)
NAT 2%

The poll has nothing but more bad news for the Westminster government and for Gordon Brown, as the UK Polling Report explains:

Their net approval rating is at minus 59, Gordon Brown’s net approval rating is minus 51. 75% of people now think that the economic conditions in the country will get worse in the next 12 months, the highest MORI have ever recorded in the 29 years they have been asking the question. Only 11% expected things to improve.

In contrast David Cameron’s net approval rating is now plus 21, with 50% approving of the way he is doing his job. This isn’t as high as Tony Blair’s best scores when he first became Leader of the Opposition (his highest rating was plus 30 in March 1995), but is the sort of rating Blair used to receive around 1996 and early 1997. On the other hand, people are evenly split 44% agree, 44% disagree on whether David Cameron is ready to be Prime Minister just yet.

MORI have repeated a question that asked a while back, seeing whether the popularity of parties ran ahead or behind their leaders. It suggests that the Conservative party now has a more positive image than the Labour party, and that while David Cameron has a positive effect on the Conservative party (54% like Cameron, compared to 42% who like his party. 19% of people say they like Cameron but not his party, with only 9% saying the opposite), Gordon Brown is a considerable drag on the Labour party (only 29% like Brown, but 39% like his party. 21% of people say they like Labour, but not Brown, only 11% say the opposite).

Torygraph antics

The Daily Telegraph claims that Barack Obama's decision to meet Tony Blair on his UK visit a day before he meets Gordon Brown is a "snub" to the Prime Minister.

I hardly think that Obama has any motive for snubbing Brown, and let's remember that Blair is no longer a politician, and certainly isn't a rival for the premiership! Now, if Obama met with Cameron first then there would be some justification for such a claim, but that isn't the case.

Blair is a popular figure in the US, which is why Obama wants to be seen with him. Blair's current role in the Middle East also presents the presidential candidate with a valid excuse to do so. It has nothing to do with Obama's opinion of Brown and everything to do with becoming the 44th president of the United States.

With so much going wrong for Gordon at the moment, I don't understand why the paper feels the need to make stuff like this up.

Brown's plight worse than Major's was. Much worse.

Mike Smithson notes:

Anybody trying to predict whether Brown’s Labour has any chance at all of turning things round should look at the above table very carefully. For it shows all the Guardian’s ICM surveys for the period from 21 months before the May 1 1997 general election which, of course, brought Blair’s Labour to power in a landslide.

Just compare the polling figures from the August of 1995 with what happened at the election itself - CON 31.4%: LAB 44.4%: LD 17.2%. The Tory 31% share is what they were polling at this precise point in the electoral cycle and what they averaged from the firm in all the Guardian’s surveys in the period until polling day.

The latest YouGov, ComRes and ICM polls are all showing a Labour deficit of 20% or more which, as can be seen, is worse than Major’s Tory party was experiencing at the same point in the electoral cycle

There can be little doubt that a descendant of one of William IV's lovechildren will be the next Prime Minister.

Brown -Harman relationship 'tense'

FIGHT!

Monday musings

Brown

There seems to be some consensus that the upcoming Scottish by-elections, combined with the Labour Party's financial crisis, will seal Gordon Brown's fate. The problem with this however remains that of the democratic inviability of replacing Brown witrhout holding a general election soon afterwards, which given Labour's dreadful polling almost defeats the purpose of finding a replacement for Brown in the first place.

An electoral bloodbath seems inevitable, as does the prospect of a general election no later than 2009.

Blogging

On the blogging front, Iain Dale has spoken to the Western Mail about Welsh blogs, saying there is a “vibrancy” in Welsh politics not seen in the rest of the UK and not reported in the national media. This blog gets a mention, along with Glyn Davies, Peter Black, Paul Flynn, Miss Wagstaff Presents and Valleys Mam.

Meanwhile Nourishing Obscurity is trying o set up a bloggers' blogging awards.

Not so golden Brown

Made me giggle. Hat tip to the Lone Voice

Here are a couple of more videos to celebrate one year of Brown

One year on, twenty points behind

The latest ICM poll for The Guardian confirms that confidence in Gordon Brown and the Labour Party is aat an all time low:

Gordon Brown faces a damning verdict from voters ahead of his first anniversary in power, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll. It suggests that his prime ministership has been a disappointment: 74% of those questioned say that he has been a change for the worse compared with Tony Blair, and only 24% think Labour has a chance of winning the next election while he remains leader.

The poll also gives the Conservatives a record 20-point lead over Labour, six points up on last month. Labour support has fallen two points to 25%, the lowest recorded in the ICM polls, which began in 1984.

Mike Smithson suggests that an absolutely disastrous showing in Henley could provide the perfect opportunity for someone to act against Gordon - someone prepared to risk everything by bringing the issue to a head. But who?

It has to be a cabinet minister with the standing of a future leader who is relatively well-known to the public. That limits it to Jack Straw, Alan Johnson and David Miliband. The first two probably ruled themselves out because of the pivotal parts they played in securing for Gordon his coronation a year ago. It was Straw who lined up the 313 nominees that were enough to stop anybody else getting on the ballot and it was Johnson who rubbished other potential challengers, particularly David Miliband.

The young Oxford graduate who was to become Foreign Secretary held out for a long time - long enough to differentiate himself from Team Brown and at the same time to ensure for himself a plum job. If he was to put that position on the line by resigning or even just threatening to resign that would almost certainly open up the leadership issue and Gordon’s days would be numbered.

Somehow I doubt Gordon Brown will be packing his bags anytime soon, at least not before the autumn conference season.

'Blame Thatcher' says Brown

Image: Gordon Brown, back in the days when he admired Thatcher (ie last September)

According to The Telegraph Gordon Brown will today blame Margaret Thatcher for Britain's low rates of social mobility and accuse the former Conservative Prime Minister of creating a lost generation by "denying many children the chance to progress".

Is this the best Brown can come up with after one year at number 10 and ten years as Chancellor? Will David Cameron respond by blaming Callaghan for the UK's woes? Me thinks not.

Apart from the fact that Brown seems to unwilling for his party or himself to take any responsibility for their 11 years in government, the article highlights a few other reasons why Tories will feel justified in branding him a hypocrit:

Mr Brown's speech is calculated as an appeal to Labour's core vote. However, it will spark accusations of hypocrisy as Mr Brown last year publicly feted Baroness Thatcher inviting her to Downing Street in what was seen as a blatant attempt to woo Tory voters.

It will also be seen an attempt to distract attention from Labour's record on social mobility with the Government set to miss its own targets on reducing child poverty.

Ordo's Octaves: Gordon Brown

This Friday Gordon Brown will 'celebrate' one year in office as PM.

1. A year in, it's clear: we got Brown wrong. He is simply not up to the job Jonathan Freedland (Comment is Free)
2. Will Tory attack on 'incompetent' Brown backfire? The Independent
3. LONDON 27 June 2008 Prime Minister Gordon Brown faces first year milestone in trouble NEWSAHEAD
4. One year on and a fresh chance for Mr Brown The Guardian
5. Another poll gives Gordon the red light PoliticalBetting.com
6. Will Gord’s second year start with a lost deposit? PoliticalBetting.com
7. The balance sheet is deepest red Coffee House
8. Gordon Brown facing serious revolt over planning laws The Telegraph

Breaking news?

Gordon Brown has announced that bears shit in the woods

A Brown anniversary

A year on from entering number 10, Gordon's tenure as premier is up for inspection for the first time since, well, last week or thereabouts.

That in itself is quite an achievement, if it can be described as such, considering how Brown's reputation has been giving a drubbing on a daily basis since at least April as one piece of bad news followed another.

It's far from over, but in comparison to the recent daily hammerings he's taken in the media he seems to have earned something approaching a respite since winning the vote on 42 days, mainly thanks to the diversion offered by David Davis, the aftermath of the Irish referendum, the Bush visit and, quite possibly, Brown fatigue.

According to LabourHome's grassroots survey, things have slightly improved for Brown as Labour leader. Has Brown weathered the storm?

Can Brown bounce back?

Gordon Brown has at least one fan, namely Scottish actor Brian Cox, who defended the PM on RTE Radio 1's The Tubridy Show yesterday.

Ryan Tubridy: You're Scottish, you're sick of playing second fiddle, you've waited for your moment to shine, who do you sound like now? Gordon Brown.
Brian Cox: Funnily enough I do feel defensive about Gordon Brown...
Ryan Tubridy: Why?
Brian Cox: Because I think he's getting a very bad rap; I think he's being treated very unfairly, you know. Tony Blair is a very bogus act to follow, you know, and it's very tough for him. I mean Blair is a consumate actor, you know, he's all performance, and he's brilliant at it. Even Ken Livingstone said how wonderful Blair was when it came to getting the Olympics; he flew into Singapore, he took meetings from quarter to six in the morning til quarter to two in the afternoon and then he'd fly out, and he was gifted, and he's a very hard act to follow in that way. Gordon is an intellect, he's a very bright man; in terms of what he did fiscally for the country he was the best Chancellor of the Exchequer we ever had.
Ryan Tubridy: Is he a leading man>
Brian Cox: That is the question. But it just means, you know, I think that he's hit a time where it's really what's going on in the world as, you know, we're in the worst state in terms of fuel, in terms of food, it's no good time for anybody to be Prime Minister of any country; and I think, unfortunately, he is a dour Scot, I'm not a dour Scot...
Ryan Tubridy: You're not.
Brian Cox: ...and I'm not a Gordon Brown in that way. But I do feel that he gets an unnecessary bad rap. I think that...he has become a punchbag a bit, and I do feel for him...I didn't expect to be answering questions about Gordon Brown...

Opinion polls place those who share Brian's view in a minority. But people are fickle, as the Tories may soon find out to their cost in the wake of David Davis' resignation.

Opinion over the Davis resignation is divided across the political spectrum. I'm inclined to share Vaughan Roderick's view that the resulting by-election could be good news for Labour if they choose to ignore it altogether:

If I was running the Labour Party (and thank goodness I am not) I would refuse to nominate a candidate against Mr Davis. I could write the announcement now. Something like "This is a political stunt and Labour will not elevate it by nominating a candidate. The government will continue to work for the people of Britain in the field of terrorism and other important areas, leaving the Tories to play their political games."

Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting is unsure how it will play out, but offers this warning to the Tories:

The biggest danger for Davis and Labour is that the news agenda will move on very quickly. The Irish EU referendum results look set to dominate the political headlines this weekend and then there’s the risk of the petrol crisis spreading. By July 10 the original cause of the by election could be all but forgotten.

In such circumstances, this could signal the beginning of the end of the Tories' dramatic ascension in the polls.

Brown still faces a rocky road ahead, particularly on the matter of the Labour Party's financial situation. But if he can put a dent in the Tory lead between now and September then he his position as party leader and premier will be assured, at least until next year.

The danger for the Tories is that -for all David Davis' posturing as a defender of civil liberties (and no, I'm not suggesting that he isn't genuine in his beliefs)- they may come across as looking rather silly and, worse still, impotent.

Morning Pickings

The Independent: Brown enters the final 24 hours of his battle to win vote on 42 days

Gordon Brown is struggling to head off a Commons defeat tonight over his plans to allow police to detain suspected terrorists for up to 42 days without charge.

The Prime Minister took personal charge of the last-minute arm-twisting in a desperate attempt to avert a defeat that would trigger a crisis of confidence in his leadership. With more than 40 Labour backbenchers threatening to vote against the Government, one close Brown ally claimed it was "looking grim".

I guess that makes BBC Parliament prime viewing today.

The Times: President Bush regrets his legacy as man who wanted war

President Bush has admitted to The Times that his gun-slinging rhetoric made the world believe that he was a “guy really anxious for war” in Iraq. He said that his aim now was to leave his successor a legacy of international diplomacy for tackling Iran.

In an exclusive interview, he expressed regret at the bitter divisions over the war and said that he was troubled about how his country had been misunderstood. “I think that in retrospect I could have used a different tone, a different rhetoric.”

A more conventional vocabulary wouldn't have hurt either. Or a brain.

The Guardian: Up. Up. Up. Child poverty, pensioner poverty, inequality

Gordon Brown's flagship anti-poverty campaign received a triple blow yesterday with news that a rise in both child and pensioner poverty had left Britain a more unequal country than when Labour came to power in 1997.

Treasury sources admitted that finding the necessary £2.8bn - equivalent to the one-off package to end the 10p tax row - every year would prove challenging at a time when the state's finances are already deeply in the red.

The Scotsman: Scotland's own banknotes saved

SCOTLAND'S distinctive banknotes were saved last night after the Treasury dropped controversial plans which threatened their existence.

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, revealed he had brokered a deal between the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Scottish banks to keep the financial tradition alive.

After the Northern Rock crisis, the government planned to tighten the rules on banks' collateral, in case one collapsed.

I'm sure Scots will appreciate the fact that a Scottish Prime Minister came within a hair's breadth of depriving them of their own banknotes. Imagine how that would have boosted the SNP vote! Mr Salmond has described the U-turn as a "victory for Scotland and its financial sector".

Just imagine...

Mike Smithson asks us to just imagine how Gordon Brown may win a leadership contest and call a general election this October, the latter being something I have been imagining in various places across the blogosphere in the past two months.

However, with yet more bad news dogging Brown on a daily basis, it's hard to envision the member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath winning such a contest, let alone a general election. Smithson outlines how Brown could steal the limelight from Cameron and the Tories, but he won't be able to control events beyond that. Cameron isn't Labour's problem. Brown is.

Even so, whatever happens and whoever wins a leadership contest, I'm convinced of two things. Firstly, Brown's premiership will not see the year out. And secondly, the next general election will be held before 2010.

Morning Pickings

The Guardian: Senior officers attack 42-day detention plan.

As government whips intensify their efforts to avoid a defeat on the plan in the Commons on Wednesday, senior members of the Association of Chief Police Officers (Acpo) have raised doubts about the measure. Their claims will come as a blow to the government, which has highlighted police support for the plans without making any reference to the presence of sceptics in senior ranks

The Independent: Victory on 42 days will not halt bid to oust Brown.

"Forty two days is a sideshow," one former minister insisted. "The tide is moving against him. The view of many backbenchers is that he has got to go. They want it to happen – but they still fear the consequences of making it happen."

The Herald: Salmond to set up oil fund study

The First Minister announced yesterday that the Scottish Government is to commission a study of the benefits of an oil fund for Scotland, after the revelation that a fund for the UK was considered by the Treasury in the 1970s.

Alex Salmond argued that with as much oil to come from the North Sea as has been extracted, and with the high price of oil, a fund is "an attractive and compelling idea for Scotland now and into the future".

The Scotsman: Scotland's economic standing hit as slowdown 'gains moment'

The latest data from the authoritative Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey shows Scotland has dropped from eighth to tenth in the table of UK's 12 nations and regions.

According to the figures, produced for Royal Bank of Scotland, in May Scotland was only just above the output index for the East Midlands of England and Northern Ireland.

Daily Post: Wales and Scotland discuss Euro 2016 bid

WALES could play host to the cream of European football if a joint bid with Scotland to host the Euro 2016 football championships comes off.

Wales’ First Minister Rhodri Morgan and his Scottish counterpart Alex Salmond are to hold talks with the football associations of both countries.

The move would include eight Scottish stadiums hosting matches and four in Wales.

Brown vs the Bank of England

In 1997 Gordon Brown gave the Bank of England its independence. However, it now seems that the Prime Minister wishes to backtrack on what many consider to be the only good decision he ever made.

Yesterday we Alistair Darling announced the Scottish double-act's new plan to appoint a new board to “advise” the Bank, thereby diluting the power of its governer and deputy governer.

Richard W. Fisher explains the basic idea behind giving central banks their independence thus:

Economic theory generally embraces the idea that a nation’s money supply ought not be directly controlled by its government because such an arrangement would create a perverse incentive structure that would lead to economic disaster. Printing money, or debasing the currency, to pay off government debt is an old concept, noticed by the ancient Greeks and famously practiced by the Romans. In 1824, David Ricardo warned that a government entrusted with the power to issue money would most certainly abuse it.[2] Like all good economists, Ricardo knew the destructive dynamic of printing excess money: The result is inflation, the cruelest form of taxation—especially for the poor and for savers—and the greatest obstacle for entrepreneurs and financiers seeking to invest and grow their businesses.

We have some glaring examples today of the destruction that can be wrought by governments with direct control over monetary policy. Zimbabwe is the most egregious. A year ago, after having let monetary printing presses run wild to cover up problems created by misgovernment, President Mugabe famously declared inflation illegal, promising to arrest and punish anyone who raised prices or wages. Of course, that didn’t work. Just last week it was announced that Zimbabwe’s inflation reached 26,470 percent in November. The economy of Zimbabwe has been destroyed and its people cast further into poverty as their savings disappear.

However, and loathe as I am as a Welshman to admit having read his blog, for an independent central bank to be effective within a democracy there are certain conditions necessary that need to be met, as our favourite ex-Welsh Secretary John Redwood pointed out last month:

1. All the political parties capable of forming or influencing government must support an Independent Central Bank, whatever it does, whenever it does it.
2. Government must refuse to interfere or override when the Central Bank gets it wrong, even though there will be strong pressure for it “do something”.
3. There must be no other policy aim or requirement that comes to take precedence over the desire to keep the Central Bank independent.

Brown and Darling, who as Fraser Nelson says "are taken about as seriously in the City as “Laurel & Hardy”, are breaking at least the second of these requirements.

By now we all know that Gordon Brown's reputation as a master of the economy was an illusory one, based on spin. The UK's current economic woes have as much to do with bad policy decisions made by the former Iron Chancellor as with events beyond the British Isles. Interfering with the work of people who actually have an understanding of the economy will only make matters worse.

Gordon Brown and the politics of fear

Gordon Brown may get his way in extending pre-charge detention for terrorist suspects to 42 days, despite the efforts of Labour rebels to prevent what can only be described as an affront to civil liberties.

Peter Clarke may opine that the police need such powers, but there is less danger and therefore less justification for the current propagation of fear than ever there was. As the Heresiarch demonstrates:

...what about the IRA? Ah, says Commissioner Blair, they didn't have mobile phones or the Internet back then, did they? And they usually phoned in warnings. And they weren't into suicide bombing. Altogether a better class of terrorist.

Such nice, friendly, unthreatening terrorists were the IRA that they managed to kill an estimated 1800 people during a thirty year campaign. Which is an average of 60 per year. This contrasts with the 52 victims of the London tube bombings. If we say that their "campaign" has been going since 2001, then in all but one of those eight years there have been no deaths at all in Britain. The IRA were so gentlemanly that they came within an ace of murdering the entire cabinet in 1984 (and, as I recall, there was no warning). They were a real threat, and we got through it....

There is no justification for detaining people for 42 days without trial, which would effectively make citizens guilty until proven inncocent. If we are to go down that road we may as well go the whole hog and build our own Guantamano Bay in Cornwall.

And all (as Glyn points out) to save the skin of an unelected and unpopular Prime Minister.

Brown's bribes

"Gordon Brown has a simple strategy to win the next election: to bribe his areas of traditional strength with money pinched from Tory-voting shires," Mr Dunne told the Telegraph.

"Central government grants of all kinds to councils and other public bodies have increased far faster in cities and big towns than they have in country area.

"We have witnessed a deliberate policy of switching taxpayers' money from the country to the city. It has been done in secret, with no announcement, no public debate, no explanation and no justification."

You can read the rest HERE

Brown besieged

According to The Independent on Sunday, James Purnell, "one of the favourites to be the next Labour leader", is refusing to drop the speechwriter who launched an attack on the Prime Minister:

Phil Collins, an ally of Tony Blair, sparked fury in Downing Street last week with an article describing Mr Brown's stewardship of the party as a "tragedy" fraught with "strategic errors and political mishaps".

But in an act of quiet defiance which will anger the premier and stoke speculation over Mr Brown's future, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions will continue to use Mr Collins as a speechwriter.

Mr Collins last night said that, despite his article in Prospect magazine, "nothing has changed" in his relationship with Mr Purnell.

Earlier this year Mr Collins turned down the offer of writing for Mr Brown, saying the Prime Minister needed a "magician" and "even a monkey with a typewriter" could improve his speeches.

In his article for the June edition of Prospect, Mr Collins wrote:

"In the drama of British politics a Labour tragedy is unfolding. A combination of strategic errors, political mishaps and bad luck has left the party in a vulnerable position. The economy is turning soft and the electorate sour."

That "tragedy" continues with a key internal government report damning Labour's 10-year strategy for tackling youth crime as a complete failure.

Meanwhile on the Labour back benches, MPs are calling on Gordon Brown to purge his team of ministers of Scots:

Stephen Ladyman, a former roads minister who is MP for Thanet South, a marginal constituency, said: “It is important to recognise that the election is won or lost in England.

“We need to have English voices speaking and giving messages that make sense in English communities.”

His views were echoed by Lindsay Hoyle, the MP for Chorley: “Voters are looking to see a better balance within the cabinet to ensure that all the regions of England are represented.”

Keith Vaz, a member of Labour’s ruling national executive committee and the chairman of the Commons home affairs committee, called for Brown to appoint an English deputy prime minister.

In a speech to Labour activists, Vaz suggested that Jack Straw, the Essex-born justice secretary, should take over full responsibility for domestic and economic policy.

That would mean an effective demotion for Alistair Darling, chancellor of the exchequer and a Scot, who has been accused of failing to understand the concerns of English taxpayers.

Vaz said: “Gordon has proved to me to be very effective. But now he has got a real opportunity to shake up the government. There is one way of proceeding without the necessity of a huge reshuffle. There is a post that is vacant at the moment and that is the post of deputy prime minister.”

Writing in today’s Sunday Times, former health secretary Alan Milburn says:

“For all the blizzard of initiatives that emanate from Whitehall, Labour has yet to develop a coherent post-Blair agenda.

"I believe that agenda should be based on the notion of giving people greater control over their lives and a fairer share in power. The draft Queen’s speech published by Gordon Brown last month hints at this idea but it is not yet drilled through the whole gamut of government policy like a stick of rock. Tentative change will not get Labour heard. It is big, bold reforms that are now needed.

"Short-term policy fixes are no substitute for long-term strategic purpose."

Labour's internal discontent with Gordon Brown is just not going to go away, not until he steps down as leader.

Brown hits record low for Labour

A YouGov poll for The Telegraph -the first poll since last week's Crewe and Nantwich by-election- places Gordon Brown's personal rating among voters as low as John Major's at his lowest point.

The YouGov survey puts Labour on 23 points and the Conservatives on 47 - a Tory lead of 24 points:

It is the lowest level of support for Labour since pollsters Gallup first asked people to declare their voting intention in 1943, a few months before the Battle of El Alamein.

Even under Michael Foot support for the party never dipped below 23.5 points.

Gordon Brown has certainly earned a place for himself in the annals of British parliamentary history. I doubt that will bring him much comfort though.